a16z 02月19日
7 Big Ideas for 2025 (and More Trends to Watch) [newsletter]
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a16z crypto团队发布了对2025年加密货币领域七大趋势的展望。这些趋势包括企业将更多地接受稳定币支付,各国探索将政府债券上链,美国区块链网络新行业标准DUNA的更广泛应用,建设者将复用而非重新发明基础设施,加密行业迎来自己的应用商店和发现机制,加密货币所有者成为加密货币用户,以及“隐藏线路”助力Web3杀手级应用的出现。这些趋势预示着加密货币在支付、金融、法律、技术和用户体验等方面的重大发展,值得关注。

🏦 企业将更多地接受稳定币支付:稳定币因其低成本和快速的全球支付能力而找到了市场契合点。预计2025年,中小型企业将率先采用稳定币,以节省交易费用并提高利润率,大型企业也将开始尝试使用稳定币,绕过传统支付服务商。

🔗 各国探索将政府债券上链:将政府债券上链可以创建一种由政府支持的、生息的数字资产,且无需担心央行数字货币的监控问题。这将为DeFi提供新的抵押品来源,并增加生态系统的完整性。英国等国家已在探索数字证券,美国也可能通过区块链来提高债券交易的透明度和效率。

⚖️ DUNA(去中心化非营利协会)将在美国得到更广泛的应用:怀俄明州通过了一项新法律,承认DAO为法律实体。DUNA旨在实现区块链网络的去中心化治理,并为美国项目提供可行的结构,从而使DAO具有法律效力,促进经济活动,并保护代币持有者免受责任,同时管理税务和合规需求。

🧩 建设者将复用而非重新发明基础设施:预计更多团队将利用现有区块链基础设施组件,例如共识协议和现有抵押资本,从而节省时间和精力,并专注于其产品/服务的差异化价值。基础设施已准备好构建优质的Web3产品和服务。

📱 加密行业迎来自己的应用商店和发现机制:随着Worldcoin的World App marketplace和Solana手机用户的免费dApp Store等新型应用商店的出现,加密应用将不再受制于中心化平台的限制,从而更容易获取用户。硬件(如手机和Orb)可能是加密应用商店的关键优势。

Editor’s note: This post originally appeared in our web3 newsletter — a guide to trending topics in crypto with insights and resources from engineers, researchers, and others on the a16z crypto team. Subscribe to see it in your inbox every other week.Some trends we’re excited abouta16z released its omnibus list of “big ideas” tech builders may tackle in the year ahead, according to partners across AI, American Dynamism, bio/health, crypto, enterprise, fintech, games, and infrastructure. Here’s a selection of some of the big ideas from various crypto team members. For more of what excites them, read the full post. You can also catch up on past years’ ideas here and here.) And for an outlook on policy, regulation, and more in 2025, check out this post from November.1. Enterprises will increasingly accept stablecoins for paymentsStablecoins found product-market fit in the past year — not surprising since they are the cheapest way to send a dollar, enabling fast global payments. Stablecoins also provide more accessible platforms for entrepreneurs building new payments products: no gatekeepers, minimum balances, or proprietary SDKs. But large enterprises have not yet woken up to the substantial cost savings — and new margins — available to them by switching to these payment rails.While we’re seeing some enterprise interest in stablecoins (and early adoption in peer-to-peer payments), I expect to see a bigger experimentation wave in 2025. Small-/medium-sized businesses with strong brands, captive audiences, and painful payment costs — like restaurants, coffee shops, corner stores — will be the first to switch from credit cards. They don’t benefit from credit card fraud protection (given in-person transactions), and are also the most hurt by transaction fees (30 cents per coffee is a lot of lost margin!).We should also expect larger enterprises to adopt stablecoins as well. If stablecoins indeed speedrun banking history, then enterprises will attempt to disintermediate payment providers — adding 2% directly to their bottom line. Enterprises will also start seeking new solutions to problems credit card companies currently solve, like fraud protection and identity. — Sam Broner @sambroner on X | @sambroner on Farcaster2. Countries explore putting government bonds onchainPutting government bonds onchain would create a government-backed, interest-bearing, digital asset — without the surveillance concerns of a CBDC (central bank digital currency). These products could unlock new demand sources for collateral usage in DeFi (decentralized finance) lending and derivatives protocols, adding further integrity and soundness to those ecosystems.So as pro-innovation governments around the world further explore the benefits and efficiencies of public, permissionless, and irrevocable blockchains this year, some countries may trial issuing government bonds onchain. The UK, for instance, is already exploring digital securities through a sandbox at their financial regulatory body, the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority); its HM Treasury/ Exchequer has also signaled its interest in issuing digital gifts.In the U.S. — given that the SEC is set to require clearing treasuries through legacy, burdensome, and costly infrastructure next year — expect more conversations around how blockchains could increase transparency, efficiency, and participation in bonds trading. — Brian Quintenz @brianquintenz on X | @brianq on Farcaster3. We’ll see greater adoption of the ‘DUNA’, a new industry standard for blockchain networks in the U.S.In 2024, Wyoming passed a new law recognizing DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) as legal entities. The DUNA or “decentralized unincorporated nonprofit association” was purpose-built to enable decentralized governance of blockchain networks, and is the only viable structure for U.S.-based projects. By incorporating a DUNA into a decentralized legal entity structure, crypto projects and other decentralized communities can empower their DAOs with legal legitimacy — enabling greater economic activity, as well as insulating token holders from liability and also managing tax and compliance needs.DAOs — the communities that govern the affairs of an open blockchain network — are a necessary tool for ensuring that networks remain open, do not discriminate, and do not unfairly extract value. The DUNA can unleash the potential of DAOs, and several projects are already working on implementing it. With the U.S. poised to foster and accelerate progress for its crypto ecosystem in 2025, I expect the DUNA will become a standard for U.S. projects. We also expect other states to adopt similar structures (Wyoming led the way; they were also the first state to adopt the now-ubiquitous LLC)… especially as other decentralized applications beyond crypto (like for physical infrastructure/ energy grids) take off. — Miles Jennings @milesjennings on X | @milesjennings on Farcaster4. Builders will reuse, not just reinvent, infrastructureThis past year, teams continued to reinvent the wheel across the blockchain stack — with yet another bespoke validator set, consensus protocol implementation, execution engine, programming language, RPC API. The outcomes were sometimes slightly better in specialized functionality, but often lacked in broader or baseline functionality. Take for instance a specialized programming language for SNARKs: While an ideal implementation may let an ideal developer produce more performant SNARKs, in practice it could fall short of general purpose languages (at least currently) on compiler optimizations, developer tooling, online learning materials, AI programming support … and may even lead to less performant SNARKs.That’s why I expect more teams to leverage the contributions of others, reusing more off-the-shelf blockchain infrastructure components in 2025 — from consensus protocols and existing staked capital to proof systems. Not only will this approach help builders save lots of time and effort, it will allow them to relentlessly focus on differentiating the value of their product/ service.The infrastructure is finally here to build primetime-ready web3 products and services. And as with other industries, these will be built by the teams that can navigate complex supply chains successfully, rather than the teams who scoff at anything “not invented here”. — Joachim Neu @jneu_net on X5. The crypto industry finally gets its own appstores, and discoveryWhen crypto apps get blocked by centralized platforms like Apple’s App Store or Google Play, it limits their top-of-funnel user acquisition. But we’re now seeing newer app stores and marketplaces provide this kind of distribution and discovery, and without gating. For instance, Worldcoin’s World App marketplace — which not only stores proof-of-personhood but allows access to “mini apps” — enabled 100,000s of users for several apps within just a few days. Another example is the fee-free dApp Store for Solana mobile phone users. Both of these examples also show how hardware, not just software — phones, orbs — may be the key advantage for crypto app stores… just like Apple devices were for early app ecosystems.Meanwhile, there are other stores with 1000s of decentralized applications and web3 developer tools across popular blockchain ecosystems (e.g., Alchemy); as well as blockchains acting as both publisher and distributor for gaming (c.f. Ronin). However, it’s not all fun and games: If a product has existing distribution — like on messaging apps — it’s hard to port that over onchain (exception: Telegram/TON network). The same is true of apps with significant web2 distribution. But we may see more of this porting happening in 2025. — Maggie Hsu @meigga on X | @maggiehsu on Farcaster6. Crypto owners become crypto usersIn 2024, crypto saw major developments as a political movement, with key policymakers and politicians speaking positively about it. We also continued to see it develop as a financial movement (see for example how Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs broadened investor access). In 2025, crypto should further develop as a computing movement. But where do those next users come from?I believe now is the time to re-engage the currently “passive” crypto holders and convert them into more active users, because only 5-10% of people owning crypto are actively using crypto. We can bring the 617 million people who already own crypto onchain — especially as blockchain infrastructure continues to improve, resulting in lower transaction fees for users. This means new applications will start to emerge for existing and new users. Meanwhile, the early applications we’ve already seen — across categories like stablecoins, DeFi, NFTs, gaming, social, DePIN, DAOs, and prediction markets — are starting to become more accessible to mainstream users as well, as the community focuses much more on user experience and other improvements. — Daren Matsuoka @darenmatsuoka on X | on Farcaster7. ‘Hiding the wires’ helps usher in web3’s killer appThe industry’s technical superpowers are what make blockchains so special, yet have also hindered mainstream adoption to date. For creators and fans, blockchains unlock connectivity, ownership, and monetization… But industry-insider jargon (“NFTs,” “zkRollups”, etc.) — and complex design — puts up barriers for those who benefit most from the technologies. I’ve seen this firsthand in countless conversations with media, music, and fashion executives interested in web3.Mass adoption for many consumer technologies has followed this path: began with the technology; some iconic company/ designer abstracts away the complexity; the move helps unlock some breakthrough app. Think about where email started — SMTP protocols hidden behind the “send” button; or credit cards, where most users today don’t think about the payment rails. Similarly, Spotify revolutionized music not by flaunting file formats — but by delivering song playlists to our fingertips. As Nassim Taleb observed, “Over-engineering breeds fragility. Simplicity scales.”That’s why I think our industry will adopt this ethos in 2025: “hide the wires”. The best decentralized apps are already focusing on more intuitive interfaces, to become as easy as tapping a screen or swiping a card. In 2025, we’ll see more companies design simply and communicate clearly; successful products don’t explain; they solve. — Chris Lyons @chrislyons on X | on FarcasterRead all of the big ideas in crypto here…and listen to our podcast discussion6 decentralized governance trends for 2025Andrew Hall2025 promises to be an exciting year for decentralized governance. DAOs are continuing to push the envelope in developing new ways for anonymous token-holders to govern together. Investment management companies are trying to persuade their customers to participate more often in online shareholder voting. And AI companies are using citizens’ assemblies to help set guardrails for LLMs. That will mean a lot of decentralized governance experiments running all at once, including:Websites to help voters delegateAI delegationAI delegatesSmarter incentives for participationBetter funding of public goodsMore experiments in sortitionRead about all of the trendsMore news and updates…Taxes, the bad news: Last week the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a “midnight” broker reporting rulemaking that adopts an overbroad approach to defining who should be a broker, as well as attendant obligations for third-party tax reporting. The rulemaking is a direct threat to the promise of decentralized finance and it undermines the future of DeFi innovation in the United States, writes a16z crypto Head of Regulatory Michele Korver. “We believe that this final rule exceeds Treasury’s statutory authority, violates the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), and is unconstitutional,” she says. (For more information, read Coin Center Director of Research Peter Van Valkenburgh on what the rulemaking means and what happens next.)Taxes, the good news: The Internal Revenue Service issued temporary relief on crypto tax reporting rules. The relief postpones implementation of a rule that would require centralized crypto exchanges to use First In, First Out (FIFO) as the default accounting method for calculating crypto capital gains. (FIFO dictates that the earliest acquired assets are sold first, which can inflate taxable gains.) The postponement means that “If you sell assets inside a CeFi broker, you can still use your books & records/crypto tax software to document which specific unit you are selling. You won’t have to be locked into FIFO as before,” writes Shehan Chandrasekera, head of tax at CoinTracker. The rule postponement is set to remain in place until the end of 2025.Government appointments: Former a16z crypto General Partner Sriram Krishnan has been named Senior Policy Advisor for AI at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and a16z Managing Partner Scott Kupor has been named Director of the Office of Personnel Management. They’re “both great hires who deeply understand startups and innovation,” writes a16z crypto Founder and Managing Partner Chris Dixon.Heads up! Applications for the next cohort of our crypto startup accelerator CSX are opening this week on January 8th and will go through February 7th. Sign up to learn more and receive updates.…be there or be square— a16z crypto editorial team***The views expressed here are those of the individual AH Capital Management, L.L.C. (“a16z”) personnel quoted and are not the views of a16z or its affiliates. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources, including from portfolio companies of funds managed by a16z. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, a16z has not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the current or enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. In addition, this content may include third-party advertisements; a16z has not reviewed such advertisements and does not endorse any advertising content contained therein.This content is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. You should consult your own advisers as to those matters. References to any securities or digital assets are for illustrative purposes only, and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Furthermore, this content is not directed at nor intended for use by any investors or prospective investors, and may not under any circumstances be relied upon when making a decision to invest in any fund managed by a16z. (An offering to invest in an a16z fund will be made only by the private placement memorandum, subscription agreement, and other relevant documentation of any such fund and should be read in their entirety.) Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by a16z, and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by Andreessen Horowitz (excluding investments for which the issuer has not provided permission for a16z to disclose publicly as well as unannounced investments in publicly traded digital assets) is available at https://a16z.com/investment-list/.Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see https://a16z.com/disclosures/ for additional important information.

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