本文作者认为，随着人工智能技术的发展，软件工程师市场正受到冲击，这将对加密货币市场产生重大影响。许多加密货币持有者是高收入的软件工程师，如果他们失业，可能会被迫出售加密货币以维持生活，从而导致市场崩盘。虽然这种情况尚未发生，但作者已出售了大部分加密货币，并建议人们考虑在人工智能时代持有少量具有实用性的加密货币，同时避免在未来被人工智能淘汰。

🧑‍💻 大部分加密货币由个人持有，而这些个人持有者通常是精通技术的软件工程师。随着AI技术的发展，软件工程师市场受到冲击，入门级职位已经受到影响。

💸 许多加密货币持有者依靠高薪的软件工程师工作过着非节俭的生活。一旦他们失业，为了维持生计，他们可能会被迫出售加密货币，从而给市场带来抛售压力，导致市场崩溃。

⚠️ 作者已经出售了几乎所有剩余的加密货币。但作者建议为了避免未来后悔，可以保留少量加密货币，以应对潜在的上涨和实现多元化，尤其是在AI时代可能有用的加密货币（例如，通过SOL进行廉价快速的小额支付）。

Published on February 13, 2025 8:17 PM GMT

[legal status: not financial advice™]

Most crypto is held by individuals^[1]

Individual crypto holders are disproportionately tech savvy, often programmers

AI is starting to eat the software engineers market

Already entry level jobs, which doesn't matter for crypto markets that much.^[2]

But judging by progress at other tasks AI climb the seniority ladder to where most crypto holders are within the next few years. SWE Bench Verified went from single digit %s to 64% in a year and a bit, and the METR evals are not looking hopeful for humanity's lead. Tech giants are doing increasing amounts of their work with AI.^[3]

Many hodlers who lose their job income will sell crypto to maintain lifestyle

Many hodlers have become accustomed to a non-frugal life on the backs of their well paying SWE jobs. If those go away, forced sell pressure is likely to collapse the market once their fiat runs out. If you need $50k to not lose your house, you're often going to sell crypto even if the market is down and it's a bad time. If lots of people do this, the market has a bad time. Could well be a few months or even a few years out, but my guess is it happens.

This hasn't happened yet, we're still around an all time high^[4]

These dynamics might not kick in for another year or three, and the gap between "can automate high level software devs" and "can automate building the next generation of AI, which iterates a few times then kills everyone" might be small. But probably worth a little consideration.

Counterpoint: National Bitcoin Reserve?

Could well happen, might be worth keeping a bit for upside and diversification. Generally advise not selling 100%, for expected regret minimization.

Money where my mouth is

I sold almost all my remaining crypto recently. Might be worth keeping a small amount for utility and exposure to any crazy upswings, especially in coins that might be useful in the AI era (e.g. cheap fast micropayments via SOL), but I think it's time to mostly cash out our winnings overall.

best of skill to y'all as we head into the singularity. consider trying to avoid dying with a unnecessarily large pile of unspent money which could have shifted the needle.

1. ^{^}

   Others cryptos are a bit different, but the story is broadly similar in the relevant ways.

2. ^{^}

   but oh boy be sure to update your advice to people who are picking a career

3. ^{^}

   e.g. Google: 25% of code written by AI, Amazon: 4500 years of dev time saved

4. ^{^}

   ETH is a bit worse, but might be hit earlier as more programmer heavy?

   

Discuss