Becoming Human 02月04日
AGI in 2025 |Do you think what matters today will still matter in the coming months? TL;DR: No!
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文章探讨了2025年通用人工智能(AGI)可能带来的深远影响。AGI的快速发展将使企业通过AI代理大幅提高员工效率,减少招聘需求。新创公司将面临现有SaaS巨头的强大竞争,难以立足。医疗领域,AGI将逐步取代医生,实现更高效的诊断和治疗。AGI的普及不仅来自大型科技公司,也因GPU成本下降而变得更加普及。文章强调了在AGI时代做出正确决策的重要性,并认为科技公司将重塑世界格局。

🚀AGI技术普及:众多公司竞相在2025年前开发AGI,技术门槛降低,使得AGI的复制和应用变得更加容易。

💼劳动力市场变革:企业将利用AGI提高效率,减少人力需求,导致现有员工生产力提升,但同时也可能引发失业问题。

🏥医疗领域颠覆:AGI将首先冲击诊断医学,尽管初期强调人机协作,但最终经济压力和效率将推动AGI取代医生,实现医疗自动化。

🌐全球性影响:AGI的普及将重塑人类社会的各个方面,其发展不仅依赖于大型科技公司,也因GPU成本下降而变得更加普及。

💰投资方向建议:在AGI时代,应持续投资科技公司,因为它们将引领未来的变革,重塑世界格局。

OpenAI, Sam Altman, Elon Musk, xAI, Anthropic, Gemini, Google, Apple… all these companies are racing to build AGI by 2025, and once achieved, it will be replicated by dozens of others within weeks. The idea of creating a compressed knowledge base of humanity, extracting information, and iterating on outputs to optimize results is no longer revolutionary. Thousands of engineers worldwide can replicate what OpenAI has accomplished because it primarily involves scaling up Transformers — a model developed by Google, which itself was just an advancement of prior AI research.

But what comes next?

Workforce

The next big shift: Every company on the planet will start replacing workloads with AGI wherever possible to maximize profit margins. Companies won’t hire as much because their existing employees will be 10x more productive with AI agents.

Startups and New Companies

Launching new startups — many of which are essentially databases with a layer of applications — will become nearly impossible. Why? Because SaaS is much more than just a product; it involves extensive behind-the-scenes deals, massive distribution networks, and an established customer base. Existing SaaS giants will dominate every corner of the industry, leveraging AGI to achieve 100x more efficient processes. New players will struggle to compete. Founders traditionally find opportunities in dysfunctional parts of the industry or niche markets, but with AGI, even those opportunities will vanish.

Healthcare

Diagnostic medicine will be one of the first sectors disrupted by AGI. Initially, there will be talks about fairness, democratizing healthcare, and empowering doctors by “keeping humans in the loop.” However, over time, the economic pressure and efficiency of AGI will reduce the role of doctors, eventually replacing them with AGI and healthcare robotics. The sector’s current shortages and inefficiencies will accelerate this transformation.

Humanity’s Transformation

Every aspect of humanity will change — not solely because of OpenAI, xAI, Google DeepMind, or others — but because AGI can be built by anyone with enough incentives and the resources to purchase GPUs. And with GPU costs dropping over time, AGI development will become increasingly accessible.

So, What’s the Right Move?

There will be countless positive aspects to the emergence of AGI, but you need to make the right decisions now! Keep investing in companies, particularly tech companies, because they will soon reshape the entire world.

..what do you think?


AGI in 2025 |Do you think what matters today will still matter in the coming months? TL;DR: No! was originally published in Becoming Human: Artificial Intelligence Magazine on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

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AGI 人工智能 科技变革 劳动力市场 医疗自动化
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