少点错误 02月02日
Seasonal Patterns in BIDA's Attendance
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BIDA 自 2011 年起的出勤统计显示出季节性模式。2016 年初达峰值,2018 年初陷低谷后恢复,疫情后再度上升。文中探讨了影响因素,如天气、学生群体、场地环境等,还提及了疫情后的意外情况,并对其他舞蹈的季节性表示好奇。

🎈BIDA 出勤在 2016 年初达峰值,2018 年初陷低谷后恢复,疫情后上升

🌞天气影响出勤,温暖时室内舞蹈吸引力相对较低,寒冷时人们更寻求温暖社交

🎓BIDA 吸引学生,他们夏季较少参与

🏠场地环境影响,大量冷干空气使场地更宜人,夏季舞蹈场地较湿热

Published on February 2, 2025 2:40 AM GMT

We've been keeping attendance statistics for BIDA since 2011, and looking at the online chart I noticed some patterns in the moving average that looked seasonal:

How seasonal is it?

First, here are the raw attendance values:

This excludes special events (family dances, double dances, bonusdances, Spark in the Dark) and our new 4th Sunday afternoon series.To make it a bit clearer, let's add a moving average:

A seven dance sliding window, where the dances are weighted1,2,3,4,3,2,1. This is the same weighting as on the website.

Attendance grew to a peak at the beginning of 2016, fell to a troughat the beginning of 2018 (prompting me to write a worried blogpost), recovered in 2018 and stayed ~level until the pandemic hit,and then has really taken off since resuming.

I still see the seasonal pattern that prompted me to look into this,but I think it would be clearer if I lined up the seasons:

It does look like attendance tends to be higher in the winter, andprobably also like the pattern is becoming stronger? Some guesses atwhy:

On the other hand, judging from our latestsurvey this is a pretty covid-cautious group, and it's a bitunexpected that the seasonality of dancing post-resumption would matchthe seasonality of covid. To the extent people are trying to avoidrespiratory illness I'd guess they'd try to shift dancing towardstimes of the year with lower infection risk? But to the extent peopleare doing this it's apparently not large enough to overcome thefactors pushing the other way.

I'm curious what seasonality looks like at other dances, if anyone hasdata they can share!



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BIDA 出勤统计 季节性模式 影响因素
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