Market Dynamics and Value PropositionBC technology was initially perceived as suitable only for rooftop applications. Challenging this perception, Zhong said LONGi introduced a ground-mounted BC product in Spain, followed by distributed BC solutions. He emphasized that BC excels across applications, offering superior conversion efficiency, excellent bifacial ratios, and robust performance even in challenging terrains and shaded conditions. Zhong described BC technology’s advantages using the metaphor “high, rich, handsome, and safe.” “High” signifies its high efficiency, energy output, and technically advanced; “Rich” refers to its superior financial returns; “Handsome” reflects its aesthetic appeal; and “Safe” highlights its enhanced hotspot protection, with module temperatures under shading limited to around 100°C, which is significantly lower than the 170-120°C for traditional modules. To illustrate BC’s value, Zhong cited a Zhuhai case study where replacing a conventional module with a BC module added 35 W of capacity, generating an additional 40 kWh annually. At a daytime electricity rate of RMB 0.75/kWh, this equates to an extra RMB 30 per year. With BC module costs below RMB 90, the investment achieves payback in under 3 years, delivering tenfold returns over 30 years.Picking on the safety aspects of BC, AIKO’S Chen emphasized the enhanced reliability of BC modules, particularly for distributed systems, outlining 3 key safety benefits. First, BC modules mitigate fire risks through superior hotspot prevention and temperature control. Second, these products provide structural safety, demonstrating reliability across lightweight, single-glass, and double-glass formats. Third, they provide investment protection by ensuring long-term performance and safeguarding financial returns. Chen highlighted BC’s unmatched reliability in power generation, attributed to its single-sided interconnection design, which minimizes the risk of microcracks. As an example, he cited a collaboration with Huaneng on a floating system demonstration, where BC modules outperformed TOPCon modules by generating 7% more power per watt in the first month. Floating systems, prone to impacts and vibrations, often exacerbate microcracks, but BC modules’ superior crack resistance enhances their reliability and performance under such conditions.Answering a question on the timeline for BC products to achieve a 50% market share, LONGi’s Zhong reflected on a wager he made during SNEC 2024. While the initial estimate was 2029, he now revised it to 2027/2028, citing rapid technological progress. He noted, however, that while rapid adoption is promising from a technological perspective, it presents challenges for manufacturers, such as the risk of overcapacity, which would require careful management.Sharing his view on the timeline for BC adoption, AIKO’s Chen emphasized the need for a strategic approach. He gauged audience interest in continued TOPCon investment, noting the muted response as an indicator for the industry to shift focus towards emerging technologies like BC. Chen emphasized that achieving large-scale BC production with high efficiency and low cost will require a 2-3-year timeframe while highlighting the importance of avoiding the pitfalls of overcapacity looming around TOPCon. Both LONGi and AIKO's leadership concurred that a gradual, strategic rollout would be advantageous for the industry, ultimately establishing BC as the dominant technology in photovoltaics.Shen reasoned out from the efficiency perspective, highlighting BC technology’s efficiency advantage over TOPCon, with BC cell mass production efficiency expected to reach 27.5% to 28%, compared to TOPCon’s current efficiency of around 25.3%. An average annual efficiency improvement of 0.4% to 0.5% indicates that BC is poised to dominate the market within 5 years, potentially capturing over 50% of the market share. The major challenge is the 800 GW TOPCon capacity, with BC’s growth relying on both corporate and governmental efforts. On the other hand, TOPCon’s progress has significantly slowed, particularly due to challenges in dual-side passivation. In contrast, BC’s rear-side optimization offers superior results, indirectly spurred by the limitations of TOPCon. Shen says that BC’s trajectory suggests it could achieve a 50% market share in as little as 3 to 5 years, solidifying its role as the next major technology in photovoltaics.
