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- The top scientist at real-estate firm CoreLogic lives in an LA area affected by the Palisades fire.Howard Botts said he chose his home's location carefully and added extra protections against fire.He said his home is safe but that big challenges lie ahead for his neighbors and other homeowners.
This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Howard Botts, chief scientist and executive leader of CoreLogic's science and analytics team, which studies the climate crisis and risks from natural disasters. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
I live in the Rustic Canyon area of Pacific Palisades, a neighborhood in the city of Los Angeles — 20 miles west of downtown.
We've had fires in the community before, but usually, they get suppressed pretty quickly. The recent fires are an anomaly.
On the day it all started, I could see smoke and fire on the top of the Santa Monica Mountains in the city. The wind was blowing at 30 to 50 miles per hour. which I knew wasn't good because winds flow from the mountains to the ocean.
My wife and I began packing up essential things, getting ready to evacuate. We had no idea how fast that fire was going to spread. Within a couple of hours, much of our city was engulfed in flames.
We evacuated from our house, along with tens of thousands of residents from Pacific Palisades and surrounding areas.
Last Thursday, I was able to walk into Rustic Canyon. Miraculously, our house had no damage, but there's a lot of ash, debris, and smoke damage that will need extensive clean-up. We may have to remove the drywall and insulation if deep cleaning doesn't remove the campfire smell.
Courtesy of Howard Botts
I live on the south side of Sunset Boulevard, just below Will Rogers State Park. Virtually all the homes on the north side of Sunset and above burned — including Billy Crystal's house and Will Rogers' historic home.
As you go up the hill from where I live, into the main part of the Palisades, it looks like the pictures you see of Hiroshima after the atomic bomb was dropped. Literally everything is gone, except for some fireplaces and metal staircases.
Palisades residents didn't anticipate the fires even though the area is high-risk
The Pacific Palisades is uniquely located between the Pacific Ocean and the Santa Monica Mountains, which rise about 1,000 feet above the city — just a few miles from the coast. The mountains offer beautiful views but are also heavily covered with chaparral, making the area at high risk for wildfires.
I was very aware of this and avoided living in the hillside area.
A question I get a a lot is, "Why do people live in the Palisades, up in the hillside?"
I think it's a calculated risk. For some, the area's amenities outweigh the perceived risk.
The homes in the neighborhood range from $3 million to $64 million, so people living here have some level of assets and probably feel secure. The area is also unique in that, even though it's part of the city of LA, it has a small-town feel.
I think all of those things caused people to maybe downplay the wildfire risk. They thought nothing like this would ever happen.
The Palisades fire ignited for several reasons
You would never envision an entire community burning, but the wildfires were born from a perfect storm of events.
Increasing average temperatures put stress on vegetation in the mountains that hadn't burned in 30 years.
Extremely high wind speeds also played a major role. The winds carried embers a mile from the wildfire, blowtorching flames out of the mountains and into flat, more urban areas. In those areas, houses, fences, and vegetation were already burning well ahead of the fire's front.
There were also human-caused factors. Fire departments and responders ran out of water, so fire suppression that would normally occur on the ground ceased for a period.
Fires in this area are also typically attacked from the air with airplanes and helicopters. However, those aircraft were grounded due to the high winds, preventing the use of fire retardants and other aerial suppression methods.
I don't plan to leave the Palisades, but I've taken steps to protect my house and family
I absolutely plan to continue living in the Palisades.
As a scientist and a fourth-generation Californian, wildfire risk is always at the forefront of my mind. I've mitigated everything I could around my property, from installing double-paned windows and a fire-resistant roof.
My house is anchored in bedrock, so my earthquake risk is relatively low. Plus, I live high enough above the Pacific Ocean that I don't have to worry about sea level rise.
Courtesy of Howard Botts
Conversely, it will take a decade for my community to return.
Many older homes likely had asbestos or lead, requiring major remediation efforts, including removing soil and other materials. This will prevent people from moving back in immediately.
Also, the stores, banks, post offices, and schools are all gone, so any sense of community closeness is lost.
It will be a long time before this area bounces back — that will be the real challenge.
Insurance costs could impact whether people who lost homes rebuild or move
The Palisades is relatively affluent. However, the areas affected by the Eaton fire have many more middle-class residents.
I think the fires will change the character of those neighborhoods, because the key question is, "Can residents afford to rebuild at the cost it will take?"
Building codes have changed, so homes being rebuilt will need to meet the latest standards, including indoor sprinklers for fire suppression and fireproof Class A roofs, which will increase both materials and costs.
Another question is, "Do residents have enough insurance coverage to make rebuilding possible?"
AP Photo/Etienne Laurent
California definitely has an insurability problem at the moment.
In September, a major insurer did not renew my policy. The only fire insurance I could get was through the California FAIR Plan, the insurer of last resort. My overall homeowners premium increased from $2,800 a year to $12,800 a year for less coverage than I had previously.
With higher insurability costs, some of my neighbors are considering moving to lower-cost areas in other parts of California. I think we'll see this play out nationally as well.
Over the next 30 years, we'll likely see people moving to regions they've historically left, such as cities around the Great Lakes — Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit — where climate change impacts are expected to be more moderate.
Californians will also need to adjust how they build homes
A key question is how places like California can stay safe with rising temperatures.
We'll see more happening at the community level, where neighbors band together to clear vegetation around homes to reduce wildfire risk.
Additionally, there will be more pressure on individual homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk on their properties — such as avoiding wood fences, decks, and pergolas attached to the house.
We'll also see insurers incentivizing homeowners to make changes that reduce risk. For example, some neighbors were told they could lower their rates by removing pine or eucalyptus trees from their property.
Going forward, I think there will also be much greater investments in California's public safety, including making sure there is adequate water supply, fire suppression equipment, and other resources.
