文章分析了过去18个月光伏产业链，从多晶硅到组件的现货价格异常低迷的现象。多晶硅价格的急剧下降导致了晶圆、电池和组件的制造成本降低，但售价的降幅超过了制造成本的降幅，挤压了制造商的利润空间。现货价格在低位保持稳定，使得制造商面临严峻挑战。许多制造商取消或推迟了产能扩张计划，小型制造商倒闭，现有产能过剩问题短期内难以解决。到2024年第三季度，整个产业链的平均售价低于现金成本，这表明要么价格反弹，要么需要进一步降低成本才能使定价再次盈利。此外，未来几年内实现大规模制造成本降低可能面临多重不利因素。尽管市场面临诸多挑战，但对2025年和2026年的计划产能水平影响有限。

📉 过去18个月，光伏产业链现货价格持续走低，多晶硅价格大幅下降是主因，导致晶圆、电池、组件制造成本降低，但售价降幅更大，挤压制造商利润。

⚠️ 现货价格长期处于低位，对制造商造成巨大挑战，大小厂商纷纷取消或推迟产能扩张计划，小型制造商倒闭，产能过剩问题短期难解。

📊 整个产业链的平均售价在2024年Q3已低于现金成本，亟需价格反弹或进一步降低成本以恢复盈利能力，但未来几年大规模降低制造成本面临多重挑战。

🏭 尽管市场面临破产、重组、产能扩张取消等诸多挑战，但对2025年和2026年的计划产能水平影响有限，预计到2026年，晶圆、电池、组件市场将分别达到1.6TW、2.3TW和2.2TW的规模，而安装量预测在650GW至770GW之间。

🔮 市场在恢复正常前，可能面临自愿减产或制造商被迫亏损运营等更多挑战。

Trends & ProjectionsBarrows began his presentation with a graphical representation of the exceptionally low spot prices throughout the PV value chain, from polysilicon to modules, over the past 18 months. This rock-bottom price trend, primarily driven by the sharp decline in polysilicon prices, subsequently reduced manufacturing costs for wafers, cells, and modules. However, this price drop squeezed manufacturers' margins, as the reduction in selling prices outpaced the decline in overall manufacturing costs. Exawatt highlighted that the recent stability in spot prices, which have remained at these low levels for the past few months, has posed significant challenges to manufacturers. Both large and small producers have canceled or postponed capacity expansion plans, smaller manufacturers have gone out of business, and existing overcapacity is not expected to be resolved quickly.This unsustainable trend of average selling prices (ASPs) falling below cash costs across the value chain – spanning wafers, cells, and modules – by Q3 2024 underscores the need for either a price rebound or further cost reductions to make ongoing pricing profitable again. Exawatt also noted that achieving major manufacturing cost reductions over the next few years may be difficult due to multiple potential headwinds.A review of the historical trend of Daqo’s polysilicon manufacturing costs and ASPs between 2017 and Q3 2024 revealed that prices ($/kg) have fallen below cash costs by the end of 2024. Between 2021 and 2023, however, a price surge resulted in considerable profits for some polysilicon producers, allowing them to survive for an extended period while selling slightly below cash costs. New entrants in polysilicon production, however, face much greater challenges, noted Barrows. For example, one unnamed manufacturer has yet to activate its new polysilicon unit due to the ongoing price trends. Despite numerous casualties in the market, including bankruptcies, restructurings, widespread cancellations and postponements of capacity expansion plans, and cross-industry manufacturers exiting the PV sector, the impact on planned capacity levels for 2025 and 2026 has been limited. Exawatt predicts that by 2026, the market will reach 1.6 TW for wafers, 2.3 TW for cells, and 2.2 TW for modules, while the installation forecast is between 650 GW and 770 GW. The company further predicted that more challenges lie ahead – whether due to voluntary production cuts or manufacturers being forced to operate at a loss – before the market returns to normal.