Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg 01月09日
Making better decisions by thinking like an artist (with Elspeth Kirkman)
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本文探讨了影响决策清晰度的因素,如心理距离和构建水平理论。文章介绍了如何通过调整心理距离来优化决策,并提出了“决策景观”的概念。同时,文章还探讨了在成人决策中引入人工限制的必要性,以及如何处理人工智能带来的生产力提升。此外,文章还涉及了人工智能对艺术价值的影响,以及如何摆脱算法驱动的负面情绪。最后,文章还提出了幸存者偏差是否是终极认知偏差的问题,并介绍了其他一些鲜为人知的决策框架。

🤔 心理距离影响决策:心理距离指的是我们与决策情境的疏远程度,包括时间、空间、社会和假设维度。较远的心理距离可能导致我们关注抽象的概念和目标,而较近的心理距离则让我们注重具体的细节和可行性。

🎨 构建水平理论:该理论认为,人们在思考事物时,会根据心理距离采用不同的抽象程度。当我们心理距离较远时,倾向于使用高水平的抽象概念;而当我们心理距离较近时,则倾向于使用低水平的具体细节。

🗺️ 决策景观:文章引入“决策景观”的概念,强调决策过程不是孤立的,而是受到各种因素影响的。通过像艺术家一样思考,我们可以更好地理解和优化我们的决策环境。

🤖 AI与生产力:文章探讨了人工智能带来的生产力提升,以及我们应该如何利用这些收益。同时也提到了AI对艺术价值的影响,以及我们如何应对算法驱动的负面情绪。

Read the full transcript here.

What kinds of things really distort our ability to think clearly when making decisions? What is "psychological distance"? What is construal level theory? How can we intentionally increase or decrease psychological distance for ourselves or others who are making decisions? What are "decisionscapes"? When giving toddlers choices, we often artificially limit the number of available options to help smooth out the decision process and avoid decision paralysis. When might the imposition of this kind of artificial limitation be useful for adult decision-makers? What should we do with the productivity gains we've reaped (and will presumably continue to reap) from AI? Is it possible to show someone that you really care about them without making any kind of sacrifice? What has AI done to the value of art? Which individuals and companies currently own the means of digital production? How can we break free from algorithms that drive engagement by triggering negative emotions and promoting conflict? Is survivorship bias the ultimate cognitive bias? What are some lesser-known or lesser-used framing devices for making better decisions?

Elspeth Kirkman is the Chief Programmes Officer at Nesta, overseeing missions in early childhood development, obesity reduction, and net-zero emissions. She previously held senior roles at BIT, including establishing the company's North American office. Elspeth is the author of two books: Behavioral Insights (2020), co-written with Michael Hallsworth, and Decisionscape: How Thinking Like an Artist Can Improve Our Decision-Making (2024). Follow her on TikTok at @Karminker or on Bluesky at @karminker.bsky.social.

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心理距离 决策 认知偏差 人工智能 构建水平理论
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