Last week of the regular season, and after spending most of the season 10+ games under .500 – bottoming out at 33–46–2 after week 10 – I turned it around my season picks are sitting at 78-76-4. It turns out I’ve got a sizable (10-unit) side bet on my finishing above .500 in the regular season. I could sit this week out or bet just one game and guarantee a win on that side bet, but that’s chickenshit. In 1941, Ted Williams woke up the morning of the final day of the season sitting on a .39955 batting average. His manager offered to let him sit, and protect a batting average that would round up to .400. Williams instead played both games and went 6-for-8, finishing the season at .406. I’m betting. (Also worth noting that 78-76, I’m still around 5.5 games in the hole counting the vig.)
The last week of the NFL season is always a weird one. The best teams, generally, having nothing to play for. (Sunday night’s epic matchup with the 14-2 Vikings at the 14-2 Lions is the rare exception.) Most teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and have little to play for but pride. And the worst teams are really facing clear motivation to just go in the tank and get the highest draft pick they can.
There are four games Sunday with absolutely no playoff implications: JAX-IND, BUF-NE, NYG-PHI, and SF-ARZ. I can’t see betting on any of them. But: maybe that BUF-NE is interesting, because the Pats – back to their rightful place as a perennial sad sack loser of a franchise – guarantee themselves the top draft pick with a loss.
All of the remaining games have some sort of playoff implications, most of them related to seeding. I found a great website – the aptly named NFL Playoff Scenarios – that offers super simple, super clear explanations of every team’s situation. One example: if the Bengals beat the Steelers Saturday night, the Chargers can take the AFC 5 seed with a win vs. the Raiders Sunday. That would get them a first round playoff game against the totally meh Houston Texans, instead of a game in Baltimore against the Ravens, a legit Super Bowl contender. But if the Steelers win Saturday night, the Chargers have bupkis to play for this week, as they’ll be locked into a Harbaugh-Harbaugh rematch in Baltimore. (Which presumes the Ravens beat the lowly Browns in the early Saturday game, of course.)
Anyway, Home team in CAPS, my pick listed first. Postgame comments, if any, in italics.
Saturday:
STEELERS over Bengals +125 moneyline – This is a tough one to call. On the surface, momentum clearly looks to favor the Bengals, who’ve won 4 straight, while the Steelers have dropped 3 straight, and none of those losses were even close. But the 4 straight wins for the Bengals haven’t exactly been against all-pro-laden teams: Cowboys, Titans, Browns, Broncos. And the Steelers’ 3 straight losses have been against some of the NFL’s very best teams: Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs. In a perverse way I think that favors the Steelers?
Sunday 1pm:
COWBOYS +6.5 vs. Commanders – Shit season for Dallas, no bones about it. And downright embarrassing at home, where they’re 2-6 and -116 on point differential. And they got their asses handed to them last week here in Philly. But I think it makes a difference that they’re playing at home, I think it makes a difference that the players seems to have genuinely rallied around Mike McCarthy (we fans sure haven’t), and I think it makes a difference that every single team in the NFC East fucking hates each other. I wish it were
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Season to date (weeks 1-17): 78-76-4
This week: ?
