The keynote speaker on day 1 of the TaiyangNews High Efficiency Solar Technologies 2024 conference, Head of PV at CRU/Exawatt Alex Barrows, shared his thoughts on the PV cost, price and technology outlook. He reflected on the challenges the global PV industry is facing with overcapacity leading to unsustainable pricing. Rising prices for raw materials like silver and aluminum could further strain manufacturers, as will labor and depreciation costs. Silver, for instance, is currently in deficit and the status quo is unlikely to change over the next few years. There could be a potential small decline in supply over the next 5 years while demand grows. For the market to return to a sustainable position, ‘polysilicon prices may need to climb in the future,’ he explained while pointing at Daqo New Energy and GCL selling polysilicon below cash cost. Glass manufacturers are in no better position. Prices may slightly reduce further as older facilities shut down, but unlikely to drop below current levels. As prices for key materials rise, it will further increase costs for module manufacturers, thus impacting the downstream market as well. Overall, Barrows sees industry consolidation, production discipline and price rebounds as necessary for the sustainable operation of the PV industry. In terms of technology, the keynote speaker reiterated the general belief that TOPCon has surpassed PERC and will dominate the market for some time, if the capacity expansion plans of the various manufacturers were any indication. The integrated manufacturing cost for TOPCon has reached parity with PERC and is now even headed lower. For heterojunction (HJT), Barrows said that though it enjoys efficiency advantages, the technology is not likely to reach cost parity with TOPCon in the near future, unless there are aggressive cost-downs or a jump of 2.5% absolute efficiency improvement. Hence, it will likely remain a niche technology. But, the question to consider is what will follow TOPCon: back contact (BC) or tandems? The longer it takes for tandems to become commercial products, the more likely it is to see a widespread transition to XBC.
