澳大利亚政府正寻求通过建立本地太阳能光伏制造能力来摆脱对中国的依赖，但这项名为“太阳能阳光计划”的工业政策面临成本高昂的挑战。与中国相比，澳大利亚的太阳能制造成本更高，且工业政策可能导致补贴和保护游说、资源配置效率低下以及抑制创新等风险。报告指出，澳大利亚应借鉴美国的经验，建立具有成本效益的太阳能电池板供应链，不必追求所有环节的本土化，而是与全球可信赖的伙伴合作，实现供应链的多元化，特别是在无法实现国内生产的环节。澳大利亚可以专注于供应链的弹性，与印度、东南亚和美国等海外制造商建立更紧密的联系，并在全球太阳能供应链中填补利基缺口，从而增强供应链的韧性。

⚠️ 澳大利亚的“太阳能阳光计划”旨在摆脱对中国太阳能制造的依赖，但面临成本高于中国的挑战，且存在工业政策带来的风险。

📉 中国太阳能产业虽具规模经济优势，但产能过剩问题突出，部分工厂利用率仅为50%左右，这表明过度依赖单一供应链的风险。

🤝 澳大利亚应效仿美国，建立具有成本效益的太阳能供应链，不必追求所有环节的本土化，而是寻求全球合作伙伴，分散风险。

🌐 澳大利亚应将“太阳能阳光计划”的投资重点放在供应链弹性上，通过进口多元化策略，与印度、东南亚和美国等海外制造商建立更紧密联系，同时填补全球太阳能供应链中的利基缺口。

While the thought behind breaking free from the Chinese dependence by setting up a local supply of solar PV manufacturing capacity is being pursued by governments globally, Edmonstone points out that Australia’s Solar Sunshot is, at the end of the day, an industrial policy that comes with a price.  Compared to China, the cost of solar manufacturing in Australia is much higher. Also, an industrial policy for solar PV manufacturing can come with risks, including lobbying for subsidies and protection, inefficient allocation of resources, or disincentivizing innovation, she points out.  Even though China runs factories at economies of scale, experience shows that the solar industry is prone to boom-and-bust cycles. Even at present, with the overcapacity challenges, the average utilization rate of some solar factories in China is only around 50%, hurting business margins. Such a situation will not be feasible for Australia. Taking a cue from the US, Australia must look at creating a cost-effective supply chain for solar panels, according to the report. This means not necessarily building everything in the solar supply chain on its own, but seeking trusted partners across the globe too, rather than depending only on China as it is now.  This entails the country aligning its Solar Sunshot investments to focus on supply chain resilience with an import diversification strategy for the segments of the supply chain it may not be able to domestically fulfill. The report recommends Australia to:  forge closer links between Australian consumers and overseas manufacturers in India, Southeast Asia, and the US, and  “Australia has an opportunity, not just to on-shore but to fill niche gaps in the global solar supply chain and, in so doing, build resilience in this supply chain,” said USSC Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer. “In this way, Australia can multiply its industrial policy output by supporting global trade flows at the same time it looks more inwards for solutions.”  The report is available for free download on USSC’s website.