在Hidden Forces第393期节目中，弗吉尼亚大学政治学教授Herman Mark Schwartz与主持人Demetri Kofinas探讨了AI引领新一轮经济增长浪潮的可能性。他们分析了“熊彼特”增长波的典型特征，以及这些增长波如何在经济各个层面产生复杂的相互作用，并最终走向衰竭，为新的创新周期让路。Schwartz教授认为，AI有可能催生出堪比甚至超越以往创新周期的创造性破坏浪潮，对商业、社会和政府在经济中的角色产生深远影响。节目还探讨了未来可能出现的三种情景：当前增长波的延续、以AI为关键通用技术的新范式，以及既非当前增长波的延续也非新范式过渡的危机时期。

👨‍🏫**Schwartz教授的专业见解**：弗吉尼亚大学政治学教授Herman Mark Schwartz在节目中分享了他对AI推动新一轮经济增长浪潮的深刻见解。他详细阐述了“熊彼特”增长波的典型特征，包括这些增长波如何在整个经济体系中产生复杂的相互作用，以及它们最终如何走向衰竭，从而为新的创新周期腾出空间。Schwartz教授的分析为理解当前经济形势和AI的潜在影响提供了重要的理论框架。

🔄**创新周期的演变**：节目深入探讨了经济增长波的生命周期，强调了每个创新周期都经历从诞生到成熟再到衰退的过程。Schwartz教授和主持人Kofinas一起，将这一框架应用于过去50年我们所经历的增长波，并指出当前周期似乎正处于内生性衰退的后期阶段。这一分析有助于我们理解当前经济增长放缓的根源，并为预测未来趋势提供了视角。

🤖**AI的变革潜力**：节目重点讨论了AI作为一种关键通用技术的潜力，以及它可能引发的新一轮创造性破坏浪潮。Schwartz教授认为，AI的影响可能与以往的创新周期相媲美甚至超越，对商业模式、社会结构以及政府在经济中的角色产生深远的影响。这一观点突出了AI在塑造未来经济和社会格局中的重要作用。

🔮**未来三种可能的情景**：节目探讨了未来可能出现的三种情景：第一种是当前增长波的延续，这种情况下，现有的技术和商业模式将继续发展；第二种是以AI为关键通用技术的新范式，这将导致经济和社会结构的重大变革；第三种是既非当前增长波的延续也非向新范式过渡的危机时期，其特点是商品短缺、能源不安全、政治两极分化和全球冲突。对这三种情景的分析为听众提供了对未来不确定性的深刻认识。

🤝**Hidden Forces的价值**：Hidden Forces通过其优质内容、专家访谈和深入分析，为听众提供了独特的视角来理解复杂的经济现象和技术趋势。通过订阅Hidden Forces，听众可以获得深入的报告、节目文字记录，并加入由嘉宾问答、专业研究分析、线下活动和晚宴组成的Genius社区。这为听众提供了一个学习、交流和成长的平台。

In Episode 393 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Herman Mark Schwartz, a professor in the Politics department of the University of Virginia and the author of three books on economic development, globalization, and the geopolitics of the subprime mortgage crisis.

Demetri and Mark discuss an article that he recently co-authored in American Affairs about AI’s potential to create a new growth wave of creative destruction that could rival or surpass those of previous innovation cycles, with enormous implications for business, society, and the role of government in the economy. They discuss what these so-called “Schumpeterian” growth waves typically look like, how they create complex interactions across all facets of the economy, and how they ultimately exhaust themselves, making room for the birth of a new innovation cycle.

In the second hour, Mark and Demetri apply this framework to the growth wave that we have been living through for more or less the last 50 years and which now appears to be in the late stages of endogenous decay. They examine three scenarios for what might come next. The first is an extension of the current wave, the second is a new paradigm driven by AI as the key general-purpose technology, and the third is neither an extension of the current wave nor a transition to a new paradigm, but rather a series of crises characterized by commodity shortages, energy insecurity, political polarization, and global conflict.

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Episode Recorded on 12/02/2024