本期Hidden Forces播客邀请了作者、投资者兼金融历史学家Russell Napier，探讨全球贸易和货币秩序正在经历的重大转型。节目分析了布雷顿森林体系解体后形成的非体系，包括人民币与美元脱钩、发达经济体中贴现率与增长率差距缩小以及美国与中国经济战升级等问题。同时，节目还探讨了这种转型对投资者的影响，包括发达国家政府可能采取的资本抑制措施、值得投资和避开的资产类型，以及中国可能建立的新货币秩序等内容。此外，节目还涉及到比特币基金、稳定币以及欧元在中美博弈中的命运等话题，为投资者提供理解、评估和管理投资组合的工具，以抓住百年不遇的投资机会。

🤔 **全球贸易与货币秩序的转型:** 节目探讨了布雷顿森林体系解体后形成的非体系，以及人民币与美元脱钩、发达经济体中贴现率与增长率差距缩小以及美国与中国经济战升级等带来的影响。

📈 **发达经济体资本抑制与投资策略:** 节目分析了发达国家政府可能采取的资本抑制措施，以及在这种情况下，投资者应该持有哪些资产，避免哪些资产，并探讨如何识别这些资产。

🇨🇳 **中国可能建立的新货币秩序:** 节目讨论了中国可能建立的新货币秩序的雏形，包括哪些国家会参与，以及中国如何利用数字化人民币和数字丝绸之路扩展其数字支付基础设施。

💰 **数字货币与全球金融格局:** 节目涉及到比特币基金、稳定币作为美元霸权延伸的可能性，以及欧元在中美博弈中的命运，探讨了数字货币在全球金融格局中的作用。

🌍 **百年不遇的投资机遇:** 节目旨在为投资者提供理解、评估和管理投资组合的工具，并抓住全球贸易与货币秩序转型带来的百年不遇的投资机会。

In Episode 392 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author, investor, and financial historian Russell Napier, about how to navigate a seminal transition in the global trade and monetary order. This episode aims to provide you with the tools to understand, value, and manage the assets, exposures, and risks in your portfolios and to capitalize on opportunities that come along only once every hundred years.

In the first hour, Demetri and Russell Napier discuss the origins of the non-system that came to shape international trade and finance in the decades after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international system of fixed exchange rates. They discuss the de-pegging of the RMB from the USD, the closing of the gap between the discount rate and the growth rate in developed economies, and the implications of America’s escalating economic war against China.

In the second hour, which is available to premium subscribers only, Russell Napier and Kofinas focus most of their time on the implications of this breakdown in the international trade and monetary system for investors. They discuss how developed world governments are likely to repress capital, what you want to own in such a world, what you don’t want to own, and how to tell the difference. They also discuss what a new Chinese monetary order might look like, which countries would participate, and how such a system would build off China’s efforts to digitize the Yuan and create a Chinese-built digital payments infrastructure that extends beyond China’s borders as part of the Digital Silk Road initiative. They also discuss the prospects for a strategic Bitcoin fund, the use of stablecoins as an extension of Dollar hegemony, and the fate of the Euro in a world torn between Beijing and Washington.

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Episode Recorded on 11/27/2024