Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月23日
US debt sustainability now seen as top financial stability risk
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美联储最新金融稳定报告显示,美国政府债务已成为金融稳定面临的最大风险,超过了持续存在的通货膨胀问题。调查发现,市场参与者最担忧的是美国财政债务的可持续性,其次是中东地区局势升级和政策不确定性。报告还评估了资产估值、企业和家庭借贷、金融部门杠杆和融资风险等四个主要领域的风险。虽然银行体系总体稳健,但对冲基金的杠杆率处于或接近2013年以来的最高水平。此外,信用卡和汽车贷款的逾期率高于平均水平,尤其是信用评分较低的借款人。美联储认为,家庭和企业债务相关的脆弱性处于“中等”水平。报告还指出,稳定币资产自上次报告以来大幅增长,11月初的总市值超过1700亿美元,但融资风险有所下降。美联储强调,这些数字资产在结构上容易受到挤兑的影响,并且缺乏全面的联邦审慎监管框架。

🤔**美国政府债务成为金融稳定最大风险:** 美联储调查显示,市场参与者最担忧美国财政债务的可持续性,超过了持续存在的通货膨胀问题,这凸显了政府债务对金融体系稳定性的重大威胁。

📈**对冲基金杠杆率攀升:** 尽管银行体系整体稳健,但报告指出,对冲基金的杠杆率处于或接近2013年以来的最高水平,这可能引发金融体系的系统性风险。

💳**家庭和企业债务风险中等:** 信用卡和汽车贷款的逾期率高于平均水平,特别是信用评分较低的借款人,但美联储认为,家庭和企业债务相关的脆弱性处于“中等”水平。

🪙**稳定币资产增长迅速,但风险犹存:** 稳定币资产自上次报告以来大幅增长,总市值超过1700亿美元,但美联储强调,其缺乏全面的联邦审慎监管框架,存在挤兑风险。

⚠️**融资风险有所下降但仍需关注:** 报告指出,融资风险有所下降,但仍“值得注意”,这表明金融体系的融资环境仍存在不确定性。

The US government’s debt load is now seen as the biggest risk to financial stability, outweighing persistent inflation in a Federal Reserve survey.“Concerns surrounding US fiscal debt sustainability were atop the list this survey, followed by escalating tensions in the Middle East and policy uncertainty,” the Fed said in its semi-annual financial stability report. The survey was conducted from late August to late October by New York Fed staff. In addition to the results of the survey of financial-market contacts, the report includes the central bank’s assessment of developing risks in four main areas, including asset valuations, borrowing by businesses and households, leverage in the financial sector and funding risks.While the banking sector remained “sound and resilient overall,” the report said leverage across hedge funds was at or near the highest level observed since data became available in 2013.Taking a look at households, the Fed said delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans were above average, especially among those with lower credit scores. Overall, they judged vulnerabilities related to household and business debt as “moderate.”“These borrowers hold a relatively small share of aggregate debt, and their high delinquency rates reportedly reflect, in part, increased borrowing by some households during and after the pandemic, rather than an abrupt broad-based weakening in households’ ability to repay,” the report said.The central bank said funding risks have decreased but remain “notable.” The report flagged that stablecoin assets “grew substantially” since the prior report and had a total market capitalization of more than $170 billion by the beginning of November — a notch below a record high seen in April 2022.“These digital assets are structurally vulnerable to runs and lack a comprehensive federal prudential regulatory framework,” the Fed said. How many degrees of separation are you from the globe's most powerful business leaders? Explore who made our brand-new list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Business. Plus, learn about the metrics we used to make it.

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美国政府债务 金融稳定 对冲基金 稳定币 融资风险
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