Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月23日
Trump tariffs risk turning American businesses into corporate welfare recipients, warns Citadel’s Ken Griffin
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亿万富翁对冲基金经理肯·格里芬警告称,特朗普提出的全面提高关税的计划将导致企业福利,损害美国的长期经济增长。他认为,受保护的美国企业将变得自满,更倾向于游说国会而不是创新。格里芬担忧关税将导致美国生产力下降,并最终导致裙带资本主义,企业将依赖政府补贴生存。沃尔玛首席财务官也表示,关税成本最终将转嫁给消费者。文章以汽车行业为例,说明关税如何导致企业失去竞争力,并依赖特定市场生存。

🤔 **关税可能导致企业福利和生产力下降:** 肯·格里芬认为,关税保护将使美国企业免受外国竞争,导致其失去创新动力,生产力下降,最终损害长期经济增长。

💰 **关税成本可能转嫁给消费者:** 沃尔玛首席财务官表示,如果企业无法吸收关税带来的成本增加,最终将转嫁给消费者,导致物价上涨。

🏛️ **关税可能加剧裙带资本主义:** 格里芬警告,关税将导致企业更倾向于游说国会,而不是通过创新和提高生产力来维持生存,从而加剧裙带资本主义。

🌍 **关税可能导致企业在全球市场失去竞争力:** 文章以汽车行业为例,说明关税如何导致美国汽车企业在轿车和小型掀背车市场失去竞争力,过度依赖皮卡市场。

⚠️ **关税可能阻碍市场力量发挥作用:** 关税保护会减少竞争,市场力量无法有效地纠正或惩罚管理决策,从而影响市场效率。

Donald Trump’s plan for a blanket increase in tariffs across the board will give rise to corporate welfare that will damage America’s long-term economic growth, warned billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin.Speaking on Thursday at The Economic Club of New York, the founder and CEO of Citadel said U.S. companies shielded from foreign competition will inevitably grow fat and complacent from the “sugar rush” of import duties. Soon enough they will realize lobbying Capitol Hill is the easiest way to ensure their continued survival, rather than the hard path through innovation and productivity.“I am gravely concerned that the rise of tariffs puts us on a slippery slope towards crony capitalism,” warned billionaire speculator Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, on Thursday. Removing competition eliminates the need to innovateHe’s not the only one. Walmart finance chief John David Rainey leveled with Americans on Thursday, telling Fox News that its U.S. customers would be the ones paying for any tariff-related cost increases the retail giant cannot absorb.Citadel’s Griffin worries tariffs will have a lasting impact on American productivity, a key metric that fuels inflation-adjusted economic growth. By impeding or even removing competitors from the playing field, market forces cannot correct or punish managerial decisions as efficiently as they otherwise might. Capitalism only works, however, if the reward for developing new products and services sufficiently exceeds the financial risks of launching a new endeavor. Businesses shielded most from these forces over time risk end up as corporate welfare recipients dependent on the state to survive at home. Corporate lobbyists descend on Congress in ever greater numbers“Once you’re in this world where companies know that their very existence is because of tariffs,” Griffin said, “now you’re going to find the halls of Washington really filled with the special interest groups and the lobbyists.”Perhaps even worse, they will become less and less competitive in global markets over time as well. A perfect example of that is the auto industry. More than 60 years ago the United States, in a trade spat with Germany, sought to punish Volkswagen for threatening domestic carmakers with its iconic VW bus. It imposed a brutal 25% import duty on all commercial vehicles that resulted in the Big Three carving the pickup truck market up amongst each other that has survived to this day.In part as a result, General Motors and Ford struggle to compete against the Asians and Europeans in passenger car segments like sedans and compact hatchbacks, and remain overwhelmingly dependent on the fat profits they earn from selling large trucks in North America.How many degrees of separation are you from the globe's most powerful business leaders? Explore who made our brand-new list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Business. Plus, learn about the metrics we used to make it.

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关税 经济增长 生产力 裙带资本主义 创新
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