Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月22日
DOGE notwithstanding, here are the 2 options Trump has to tackle the $35T national debt
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美国经济正面临着债务危机,联邦政府债务已接近GDP的100%。文章指出,在经济增长不再稳定、低利率时代结束的背景下,未来几年美国联邦赤字需要大幅减少才能稳定国家债务。文章探讨了多种财政调整方案,包括削减福利项目、调整税收政策等,并强调了加强教育的重要性。此外,文章还指出,维持政府信誉至关重要,需要通过建设性对话来增强债权人对美国政府的信心,避免未来可能出现的财政压力和经济问题。

🤔 **美国联邦政府债务问题严重:** 债务已接近GDP的100%,且在经济增长放缓、低利率时代结束的背景下,未来联邦赤字需要大幅减少才能稳定国家债务,这相当于每年所有联邦政府文职人员薪酬的两倍。

📊 **财政调整方案:** 文章提出了两种财政调整方案,包括削减福利项目(如提高领取资格年龄、限制雇主提供的健康保险等)和调整税收政策(如取消所有列支扣除额,只保留慈善捐款,并实施1%的增值税)。

💡 **加强教育的重要性:** 文章指出,尽管需要为年轻人提供21世纪所需的高薪工作,但两党对教育标准下降的问题却保持沉默,这对未来经济发展不利,需要加大对K-12教育的投入。

🤝 **维持政府信誉至关重要:** 债务问题本质上是政府与债权人之间的信任问题,需要通过建设性对话增强债权人的信心,避免债务违约风险。

⏳ **长期规划和行动:** 文章强调,虽然短期内美国不太可能无法偿还债务,但长期来看,需要采取措施减少债务负担,并形成共识,不再忽视这个问题。

Voting booths may have officially closed, but a vulnerability in the U.S. economy remains wide open for inspection. With President-elect Donald Trump now set to lead the nation, the federal government must prioritize addressing its unsustainable debt, which is now near 100% of gross domestic product. This issue must be confronted through sensible, open-minded conversations about budget priorities.Despite the best efforts of Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and the proposed new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), there are very few quick fixes on offer, and the relatively benign macroeconomic environment that has characterized the last 40 years or so no longer exists.With strong economic growth no longer guaranteed and the era of low interest rates seemingly over, I estimate that the 2025 federal deficit would need to be reduced by around $750 billion to stabilize our national debt. That is twice the amount the federal government currently spends in annual compensation for all its civilian employees.Given the importance and magnitude of the challenge at hand, now is the time to pursue meaningful fiscal adjustments that balance the need to manage costs with that of generating higher revenues. With that balance in mind, the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) maps out several alternative policy bundles that can reduce federal deficits without damaging the economy.Bundle #1One option includes, among other measures, broad-based changes to entitlement programs, such as mild increases in eligibility ages for those younger than 50, combined with limits on employer-sponsored health insurance and a 5% reduction in non-defense discretionary spending.When implemented over a 10-year period, this plan decreases government outlays by nearly $3.5 trillion (and by $25 trillion over a 30-year period). All the while, GDP goes up by 10%, and the debt-to-GDP ratio decreases significantly relative to the current baseline projections.Bundle #2:Another option is to disallow all itemized deductions, except charitable contributions, and enact a 1% value-added tax, together with smaller tweaks to the tax code. This proposal is estimated to generate closer to $30 trillion and still grow the economy by almost 6% by 2054.Either plan provides realistic, pragmatic legislation that gets us closer to fiscal stability. This is not to downplay the difficulty of the policy choices involved. Rather, in the spirit of outlining a constructive way forward, these types of ideas can lay the foundation for productive change.Higher productivity, an expanded workforce, and more entrepreneurship are all meaningful contributors to positive outcomes. In that vein, here’s one budget item that should receive a lot more attention: funding for K-12 education. Despite the need to prepare young people for the types of well-paying jobs that are likely to characterize the 21st century, both political parties have been disappointingly quiet about the recent meaningful declines in our educational standards. The U.S. produces remarkably competitive colleges and graduate schools, so how can educational attainment be worsening in primary and secondary schools? Why is the issue being met with silence?If we keep marching ahead without considering constructive fiscal action, the federal debt will swell to a level that could cause economic pain for everyone in very discernable ways. We could be at risk of entering a period of consequential fiscal pressure, with soaring interest payments undermining our ability to fund core government programs and invest in public services.    One of the more pressing realities about debt is that to issue it, you need people to have faith in your creditworthiness, and if their confidence dips far enough, they will demand higher interest rates to compensate for the perceived increase in credit risk. A prolonged delay in addressing it risks a deterioration of confidence among our creditors. Already, signs of weakening confidence are emerging: international investors have been reducing their holdings of Treasury bonds since the summer of 2021, slowly chipping away at an important source of support for U.S. debt markets (and putting pressure on domestic buyers to absorb even more of the Treasury’s issuance).   Trust is a crucial dimension of the U.S. debt problem. Fundamentally, our debt difficulties entail something that goes well beyond the amount listed in the government accounts. When boiled down, our challenge is really about preserving trust between our government and its creditors. Constructive, forward-looking dialogue about our federal finances would help reinforce that trust. Despite the concerns outlined here, it’s worth reiterating the improbability of a near-term outcome in which the U.S. fails to meet its debt obligations. There is virtually zero chance of a debt default in the short run. But in the longer term, it seems prudent to take a careful look at where we’re trending. In the interest of positive momentum, we need smart policies that will reduce the debt burden over time, together with some degree of consensus that the issue should no longer be swept under the rug.More must-read commentary published by Fortune:The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.How many degrees of separation are you from the globe's most powerful business leaders? Explore who made our brand-new list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Business. Plus, learn about the metrics we used to make it.

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美国经济 联邦债务 财政政策 教育 政府信誉
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