Astral Codex Ten 2024年11月18日
Open Thread 356
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本文主要讨论了每周公开讨论主题,包括对基督教早期历史的评论,以及博弈论中“以牙还牙”策略的演变。文章首先回顾了关于基督教早期反对堕胎和对妾的处理的评论,指出一些历史误解。随后,讨论了博弈论中“以牙还牙”策略被“赢则留,输则换”策略取代的情况,并解释了后者在模拟中取得成功的关键原因,即它能够有效地利用过度合作的个体,从而避免合作的崩溃。最后,文章还提到了博弈论领域最新的研究成果,表明“赢则留,输则换”策略也并非完美,更复杂的策略正在不断涌现。

📖**基督教早期历史评论:**文章回顾了关于基督教早期反对堕胎和对妾的处理的评论,澄清了一些历史误解,例如天主教自古以来就反对堕胎,而新教直到20世纪70年代才开始关注这个问题。

🎮**博弈论中的“赢则留,输则换”策略:** 文章指出,在某些模拟的囚徒困境中,“赢则留,输则换”策略战胜了“以牙还牙”策略。其关键在于它能够利用过度合作的个体,从而避免合作的崩溃,并建立长期稳定的合作关系。

🤔**博弈论研究的持续发展:**文章提到,博弈论领域的研究仍在不断发展,最新的研究成果表明,“赢则留,输则换”策略也并非完美,更复杂的策略正在不断涌现。

🔄**公开讨论平台:**文章提及,读者可以访问ACX的非官方subreddit、Discord、公告板以及世界各地的线下聚会,参与更多讨论。

💲**部分内容付费:**文章指出,ACX平台95%的内容免费,剩余5%需要订阅。

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. 95% of content is free, but for the remaining 5% you can subscribe here. Also:

1: Comments of the week, all on the Rise Of Christianity review: I originally said I was embarrassed to learn that early Christians opposed abortion, because I’d bought the liberal story that this was an artifact of 1970s Moral Majority politics. But Stephen Saperstein Frug says I was misunderstanding the story - Catholics have opposed abortion since forever, but Protestants didn’t care until the political realignments of the 1970s. And Ty Harding corrects my misunderstanding of the concubinage issue - Pope Callixtus didn’t try to sneak polygamy into Christianity, only to legitimize certain “lesser” types of monogamous marriage. And David Roman backs the role of women in early Christianity.

2: I started my discussion of the Early Christian strategy with the story of the TIT-FOR-TAT bot. But G2F4E6E7E8 on the subreddit says that the science of game theory has moved on; TIT-FOR-TAT was defeated in certain evolution-like noisy prisoner dilemmas by a strategy called WIN-STAY LOSE-SHIFT:

Why does Win-Stay, Lose-Shift win? In the simulations, it seems that at first, Tit-for-Tat establishes dominance just as the old story would lead you to expect. However, in a Tit-for-Tat world, generous Tit-for-Tat does better and eventually outcompetes. The agents slowly become more and more generous until a threshold is reached where defecting strategies outcompete them. Cooperation collapses and the cycle repeats over and over. It's eerily similar to the good times, weak men meme.

What Win-Stay, Lose-Shift does is break the cycle. The key point is that Win-Stay, Lose-Shift is willing to exploit overly cooperative agents---(defect, cooperate) counts as a win after all! It therefore never allows the full cooperation step that inevitably collapses into defection. Indeed, once Win-Stay, Lose-Shift cooperation is established, it is stable long-term. One technical caveat is that pure Win-Stay, Lose-Shift isn't exactly what wins since depending on the exact relative payoffs, this can be outcompeted by pure defect. Instead, the dominant strategy is a version called prudent Win-Stay, Lose-Shift where (defect, defect) leads to a small chance of playing defect. The exact chance depends on the exact payoffs.

Commenter bibliophile785 adds that this is also obsolete, and the very newest results are even more complicated - read the thread for more, and thanks for the correction / interesting information!

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基督教 博弈论 以牙还牙 赢则留输则换 合作
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