Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月17日
How high will Bitcoin go? Here’s what prediction markets say
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近期,比特币价格持续上涨,引发市场对于其未来走势的广泛关注。预测市场数据显示,比特币在11月达到95,000美元的概率较高,部分分析师甚至预测年底前可能突破150,000美元。尽管近期股市有所回调,但比特币仍有望继续上涨,部分加密货币基金创始人对年底前突破100,000美元持乐观态度。本文分析了预测市场和部分分析师对比特币未来价格的预测,探讨了比特币价格上涨的潜在因素,以及市场存在的潜在风险。

🤔**预测市场数据显示,比特币在11月达到95,000美元的概率较高,但达到100,000美元的概率仅为42%。** Polymarket和Kalshi等预测市场提供了不同时间段内比特币价格的预测,显示市场对于比特币未来价格存在分歧。

📈**部分分析师预测比特币年底前可能突破150,000美元。** Fundstrat Global Advisors联合创始人Tom Lee认为,比特币在2023年后将持续上涨,并有可能在年底前达到150,000美元。

🚀**比特币今年以来已上涨超过一倍,11月至今上涨32%。** 尽管近期股市有所回调,但比特币仍保持上涨态势,部分分析师认为监管压力减弱和减半效应等因素将继续推动比特币价格上涨。

💰**部分加密货币基金创始人对年底前突破100,000美元持乐观态度。** Lekker Capital创始人Quinn Thompson认为比特币年底前突破100,000美元的可能性很高,甚至可能在本月内实现。

⚠️**市场存在潜在风险,例如股市回调和监管政策等。** 尽管比特币前景乐观,但投资者仍需关注市场风险,谨慎投资。

So with various cryptocurrencies soaring since Donald Trump won the election, maybe prediction markets can accurately answer the question, “How high will Bitcoin go?”On the crypto-based Polymarket, where the so-called French whale netted a massive post-election windfall, bettors have various options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at about $91,000.For a contract on what price Bitcoin will hit in November, the odds are 72% that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin will be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 shows 60% odds, while yet another contract asking if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November only has a 42% chance.On the prediction market Kalshi, a contract that asks how high Bitcoin will get before 2026 shows 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.If prediction markets aren’t your thing, and you prefer a forecast from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there’s Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.Among the forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his stock market call in 2023 turned out to be the most accurate.As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could hit $150,000 by year-end. While that looks less likely now with just a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” is still possible before the end of the year with more gains in 2025 in 2026.“I think now because post-halving, Bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant, and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there’s a lot of upside from here,” he explained.Bitcoin has already soared 32% so far in November alone and has more than doubled this year. To get to $100,000, it would have to climb another 10%. But there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling as the stock market notched a losing week. Still, key components of the “Trump trade” are riding high, like Tesla stock, Treasury yields, and the dollar.Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, the founder of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told Fortune this past week that he’s optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone soon.“I feel good that we hit it by year-end,” he said. “Very possible by end of month, but we’ll see.”Learn more about all things crypto with short, easy-to-read lesson cards. Click here for Fortune's Crypto Crash Course.

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比特币 预测市场 加密货币 价格预测 分析师
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