Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月16日
Warren Buffett dumped Bank of America, but the stock may boom under Trump
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巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持续减持美国银行股票,引发市场关注。尽管伯克希尔·哈撒韦仍然持有大量美银股票,但从7月到9月已出售约90亿美元。然而,基金经理凯瑟琳·林克却逆势看好银行股,认为银行股估值较低,且收益率曲线陡峭以及巴塞尔协议III改革等因素将利好银行盈利。她认为,除了特朗普政策带来的利好外,银行股本身也具备吸引力,包括估值较低、收益率曲线陡峭以及巴塞尔协议III改革等。尽管巴菲特减持美银,但林克认为这并不意味着美银前景黯淡,而是出于降低持股比例和管理风险的考虑。

🤔巴菲特持续减持美银股票:伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司从7月到9月已出售约90亿美元的美银股票,尽管仍然持有大量股份,但这一举动引发市场关注,也引发了关于美银前景的讨论。

💰银行股估值较低:凯瑟琳·林克认为,包括美银在内的许多银行股,其市盈率仅为12-13倍,远低于标普500指数的24倍,这意味着银行股估值较低,具有投资吸引力。

📈收益率曲线陡峭利好银行盈利:银行的核心业务是借入短期资金(例如存款)并以更高的长期利率放贷,收益率曲线陡峭将导致净利息收入和净利息收益率提高,从而提升银行盈利能力。

📉巴塞尔协议III改革降低资本要求:巴塞尔协议III改革的最新版本将大型银行的资本要求从19%降至9%,这意味着银行可以拥有更多资金用于放贷,进一步提升盈利能力。

⚠️巴菲特或因风险担忧和市场估值过高而减持:巴菲特持有创纪录的现金和美国国债,这引发了市场猜测,他可能越来越担心风险,并认为股市估值过高,因此选择减持股票。

That stock is Bank of America[/hotlink], which Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been dumping en masse. Even though the conglomerate still holds a large position, it has sold about $9 billion worth of BoA shares from July through September. Link told Fortune, however, that she is holding on to the stock. “A lot of people are bullish on financials,” said Link, who manages a $3.5 billion equity portfolio. “I’ve been bullish on financials for the full year. [I] was a bit wrong in the beginning of the year. It’s taken a little bit of time to see some catch up.”Bank stocks surged broadly on Trump’s win, with investors anticipating deregulation and pent-up M&A demand to be unlocked under his second administration. Shares of Bank of America are up over 10% since election day, essentially mirroring the return of the S&P 500’s industry index.Link admits she doesn’t like being on the opposite side of America’s most revered investor. Buffett’s $5 billion investment in BofA shortly after the financial crisis served as a major vote of confidence in the second-largest bank in the U.S. and its CEO, Brian Moynihan, who he has long praised.Admittedly, Buffett’s stock sales are likely not an indication he believes BofA is doomed. After all, it remains Berkshire’s third-largest holding.It appears a major motivation behind the sell-off was to bring Berkshire’s stake under the 10% threshold that requires rapid disclosure of purchases and sales. When BofA repurchased $3.5 billion of stock in October, putting Berkshire back up above that number, Buffett’s conglomerate sold an additional $370 million in shares.Nonetheless, the Oracle is now sitting on a record hoard of cash and treasuries worth $325 billion, creating suspicion that he is increasingly worried about risk and believes the stock market is overvalued.“I worry when I don’t worry,” Link said of her mindset, “because that means we’re complacent.”Reasons to be bullish on banksNonetheless, she has a mostly rosy outlook on markets and, of course, banks. Beyond the story about slightly better growth, more M&A, and less regulation under Trump, there are factors independent of the President-elect that fuel her optimism too.For one, bank stocks are cheap, she noted, with BofA and many of its competitors trading around 12-13 times forward earnings. That multiple for the S&P 500 currently sits just short of 24.Meanwhile, a dis-inversion of the yield curve should also represent a huge boost to bank bottom lines. Their bread-and-bitter business, as Link put it, is borrowing money at short-term rates (often through deposits) and then lending that cash out at higher long-term rates.   “And if you get the steep yield curve to continue, then you have net interest income start to improve,” she said. “You have net interest margin starting to improve.”Finally, Link is also optimistic about changes to proposed Basel III endgame reforms for the world’s largest banks. The initial version of the incoming regulations would have increased capital requirements for institutions like JPMorgan Chase and BofA to 19%, but an updated proposal put forth by the Federal Reserve would bring that number down to 9%. That means these banks should have more money to lend than initially anticipated. “That’s why I think it’s more than deregulation,” Link said of her bullish position on financials. “It’s about a lot of different things that are all coming together.”We’ll see if the Oracle misses out.How many degrees of separation are you from the globe's most powerful business leaders? Explore who made our brand-new list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Business. Plus, learn about the metrics we used to make it.

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巴菲特 美银 银行股 收益率曲线 巴塞尔协议III
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