Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月14日
The next 4 years
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随着共和党赢得众议院控制权,特朗普即将上任,并有望顺利推行其政策议程。文章重点关注特朗普新政对美国商业环境的影响,包括减税降费、制造业投资、IPO市场活跃以及政府人事变动等方面。其中,减税政策预计将减少未来十年4万亿美元的政府收入,但特朗普前经济顾问认为这将刺激投资和经济增长。此外,特朗普政府的政策变化可能导致更多公司选择在纽约证券交易所上市,并可能带来政府人事变动,例如将更多非核心职位转变为政治任命。文章还提及了部分企业高管和经济学家的观点,对未来几年美国经济发展趋势进行了展望。

🤔 **减税降费政策将减少政府收入,但预计会刺激投资和经济增长。** 特朗普政府计划延长消费者税收减免,这将导致未来十年减少4万亿美元的政府收入。然而,特朗普前经济顾问Gary Cohn认为,改善的商业环境将刺激投资和经济增长。

🏭 **制造业投资将面临挑战,需要地方政府的支持。** 许多希望投资的企业高管将面临在制造业等领域投资的压力,这需要地方政府在审批和人才培养方面提供支持。

📈 **纽约证券交易所IPO活动预计将更加活跃。** 由于特朗普政府的政策变化,纽约证券交易所预计将迎来更多公司上市,一些公司甚至可能在年底前上市。

💼 **政府人事变动可能导致政策执行方式的改变。** 特朗普政府可能恢复Schedule F行政命令,将更多非核心职位转变为政治任命,这可能会导致政府决策方式的改变。

⚠️ **特朗普内阁人选将是观察未来政策走向的重要指标。** 特朗普内阁人选,例如Pete Hegseth和Matt Gaetz,将成为观察未来四年美国政治和政策走向的重要指标。

Good morning.With Republicans winning control of the House, President-elect Donald Trump will be heading to Washington with a clear path for enacting his agenda. Among Trump’s top priorities for business will be reducing regulation and taxes. Extending the consumer tax cuts that are due to expire next year would reduce revenue by $4 trillion over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. But Trump’s former economic advisor—and current IBM vice-chair—Gary Cohn argues the improved business environment will stimulate investment and economic growth. Many of those CEOs who want to invest will face pressure to invest in areas like manufacturing, which will require changes on the ground. As Cohn told our Fortune Global Forum panel on change in business, the challenge will be getting “help at the state and local level to get permitting to be able to build,” not to mention finding and training the right talent.Trump’s broad government control also means investors should expect more IPO activity on the New York Stock Exchange. NYSE president Lynn Martin says she has met with “quite a few companies that are going to look to get out pretty early in ’25”—and indeed, some may list before the end of the year “now that the volatility has come off,” following the election. Said Martin: “I don’t see a stress point that would cause me to be pessimistic about the U.S. economy.”Finally, noted economist Abby Joseph Cohen made the point that “policy is people”—and who those people are will likely change under Trump. One of her concerns is the revival of a Trump executive order known as Schedule F. “Every administration deserves to have a cadre of political appointees,” she noted as part of our Fortune Global Forum discussion. “In the U.S. federal government, there are about 10,000 of those people spread across the country in various agencies… Under Schedule F, the 40,000 experts below them would also switch to political appointees.” Instead of having scientists, lawyers and other domain experts implementing policy, that could bring a different breed of decision-maker into government.Stay tuned for the Senate hearings around Trump’s cabinet picks like Fox News host Pete Hegseth for defense secretary or Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general. That could prove to be a bellwether moment for leaders looking to navigate a new landscape over the next four years.More news below. Diane Bradydiane.brady@fortune.comFollow on LinkedInTOP NEWSTapestry CEO: Data saved our hit bagTapestry CEO Joanne Crevoiserat told audiences at the Fortune Global Forum this week that digging deep into data helped save the brand’s highly desired Tabby bag from discontinuation during the pandemic. Crevoiserat said the data showed that younger consumers were hip on the Tabby so the company slightly revamped it. FortuneUN AI leader speaks on regulationAlso on stage at the Fortune Global Forum was Carme Artigas, cochair of the United Nation's AI Advisory Board, who advocated against creating an international agency for regulating AI. Instead, Artigas proposed establishing a global AI fund, a scientific panel, and other guiding principles. FortuneAmazon unveils Temu rivalAmazon introduced ‘Haul’, a collection of wildly inexpensive products to compete with popular discount rivals like Temu, which generates billions in revenue annually. The collection only features products under $20. FortuneAROUND THE WATERCOOLERRed Lobster CEO says endless shrimp is never coming back because ‘I know how to do math’ by Sydney LakeBitcoin users are mostly rich and white or Asian—FDIC survey by Michael del CastilloArchitect Bjarke Ingels: I’ll have a construction site on the moon by 2032 by Nicholas GordonElon Musk pledges ‘maximum transparency’ in new DOGE role, complete with suggestion box and leaderboard for worst examples of government waste by Christiaan HetznerJensen Huang reveals Softbank’s Masayoshi Son once offered to lend him money to buy Nvidia by Lionel LimThis edition of CEO Daily was curated by Joey Abrams.This is the web version of CEO Daily, a newsletter of must-read global insights from CEOs and industry leaders. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.

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特朗普 美国经济 商业环境 政策 投资
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