东南亚两大上市科技平台Shopee母公司Sea集团和Grab均在近期公布了超出预期的季度业绩，股价均上涨超过10%。Sea集团今年以来股价上涨180%，Grab上涨48%。报告显示，两家公司在东南亚的竞争格局保持稳定，TikTok Shop增长放缓，Grab在出行和外卖领域保持领先。Sea集团的Shopee物流业务SPX Express快速发展，其包裹量已接近或超过J&T Express，成为东南亚最大的电商快递公司。Sea Money和Grab也在积极拓展数字金融服务，贷款业务快速增长。文章分析了东南亚电商和出行市场的发展潜力，认为两家公司在区域市场具有优势，未来仍有较大的增长空间，但关键在于执行力和战略耐心。

🤔Sea集团和Grab在2024年第三季度均取得了超出预期的业绩，股价显著上涨，反映出东南亚电商和出行市场持续增长。

🚀Shopee的物流业务SPX Express快速发展，其包裹量已接近或超过J&T Express，成为东南亚最大的电商快递公司，体现了Sea集团在供应链方面的投入和回报。

💰Sea Money和Grab都在积极拓展数字金融服务，贷款业务快速增长，显示出东南亚数字消费信贷市场潜力巨大。

📈东南亚电商和出行市场渗透率仍处于较低水平，未来增长空间巨大，但关键在于企业能否有效执行战略并保持耐心。

🌍Grab和Shopee在东南亚市场具有区域优势，且面临较少的国际竞争，这为其持续发展提供了有利条件。

Shopee parent Sea Group and Grab, Southeast Asia’ two largest listed tech platforms, both reported expectation-beating earnings yesterday (12 Nov 2024, Asia time). 

The capital market responded positively, sending both stock prices up by >10%. Year to date, Sea Group share price has risen by 180%, while Grab’s by 48%.

As usual, refer to analyst reports for detailed analyses of the financials, here are some of our thoughts:

1. Competition for both companies remains ‘stable’ in Southeast Asia. We mentioned in our comments in the prior quarter that TikTok Shop’s adjustment period seemed to last significantly longer than we had anticipated. TikTok Shop is still growing but in a not-so-aggressive way. The uncertainty with the potential TikTok ban in the US might tie some of the management attention of ByteDance – although we still believe that TikTok Shop will not settle at their current market share in Southeast Asia;Grab’s leading position in pan-Southeast Asia ride hailing and food delivery platform markets is solid as well. The low cost players of ride hailing, which some investors feared, have not created a meaningful dent to Grab’s position. While for food delivery, do look out for Momentum Works Food Delivery Platforms in Southeast Asia 2025, to be released in Q1 next year.Sea Group reported a 29.4% YoY growth of Shopee’s quarterly “value-added services” to US$767.2 million. This is “consisting of revenues related to logistics services”. This shows that the investment in its in-house logistics arm SPX Express is paying off. In the earnings call, the management reiterated that more than 70% of Shopee’s orders are now delivered through SPX Express. This might be an understatement;J&T Express reported that its next biggest competitor in Southeast Asia (which for sure is SPX Express) had a parcel volume equivalent to 90% of J&T’s in the first half of 2024. Shopee’s gross order volume grew about 10% in Q3 compared to H1 2024. This means SPX Express’s actual parcel volume is already on par with J&T Express, and might have even overtaken the latter to be the largest ecommerce express player in Southeast Asia;Sea Money grew its loan book by a whopping 30% QoQ to US$4.6 billion. It seems that after a few years of cautious growth in the high interest environment, Southeast Asia’s largest digital consumer credit business is again stepping on its pedal. Its BNPL services increased credit limits for some users, and are now financing bigger ticket items both on and off the platform. Sales & marketing expenses for digital financial services grew by 160% YoY – bang for the buck;
   
2. Grab’s loan book of US$498 million is still much smaller compared to Sea Group’s. We argued in the past that there was a lot of potential for Grab to tap into here. There are some nuances here – e.g. Grab’s users historically are more premium compared to Shopee, and a ride hailing platform had smaller user/transaction metrics compared to an ecommerce platform. Nonetheless, Grab does continue to expand its transacting user base (current MTU at 41.9 million) and offerings to various income segments, creating more opportunities for profitable digital financial services;
3. Again back to competition and how to really understand these companies. We have mentioned many times in the past that Grab and Shopee are in a good position because 1) they are regional enough as each individual market might be too small; 2) they have nowhere else to retreat to if they fail in Southeast Asia; and 3) for the same reason and on the flip side, Chinese and international giants just historically have not been able to focus on Southeast Asia very well. As we argued in the book “Seeing the unseen: behind Chinese tech giants’ global venturing”, look at these factors: Leadership, People, Organisation and Product, in that order;
4. One analyst asked in the Sea Group earnings call whether there is still room for profitable growth in Southeast Asia. The answer is obvious – look at the low penetration (e.g. Grab MTU – 5% of the region; Ecommerce<10% of total retail in Vietnam). The question is: who is executing to tap into that growth, how focused are they, and how much strategic patience do they have. 

Congratulations to the leadership, teams (and shareholders) of Sea Group and Grab.

The post Shopee & Grab both had a solid quarter – can they grow further? first appeared on The Low Down - Momentum Works.

The post Shopee & Grab both had a solid quarter – can they grow further? appeared first on The Low Down - Momentum Works.