President elect Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans have virtually all of the conditions they need to extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of next year—and that’s exactly what they are likely to do, according to tax and policy experts. Those cuts, which primarily benefit the wealthiest households and have increased the country’s debt, came about in 2017 during Trump’s first term and reduced tax rates significantly for the highest earners. Most individuals and corporations received a tax cut during Trump’s first term in office, when Republicans passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in 2017. In order to pass them, the tax cuts for individuals—but not businesses—were designed to expire at the end of 2025. What was a long way off then is upon Americans now and Trump will be eager to extend one of the key policies of his initial term.Tax cuts are “a signature part of his program,” Steve Mnuchin, the Treasury Secretary during Trump’s first administration, said on CNBC Thursday. “I think that should be easy to pass in Congress.”Many households will be happy to hear that—particularly the wealthiest in the country, which have the most to gain.Because the law cut the top individual income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%—which applies to individuals making $578,126 and up—most of the benefits of the individual tax cuts have gone to the wealthiest households in the country. In 2025, this will translate into those in the top 1% of income earners saving an average of more than $60,000, while the tax cut is worth less than $500 per year to those in the bottom 60% of households, according to the Urban Institute’s Tax Policy Center. The law also effectively doubles the estate tax exemption, which means couples can now pass on $27.22 million without any of that amount getting taxed.Of course, extending the tax cuts also means increasing the country’s annual budget deficit, just as the tax cuts did during Trump’s first term. Though the president elect has repeatedly said he would reduce the deficit, the tax cuts have added between $1 to $2 trillion to the federal debt so far. Higher interest rates mean it is now more costly to service the country’s debt, so extending the cuts would add at least $3.9 trillion through 2035, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).There is one part of Trump’s original plan that he has proposed repealing: the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, which lets people deduct their property taxes. Those subject to the cap are primarily affluent home owners in high-tax states like New York and California.If SALT cap is eliminated, it would add $1.2 trillion to the debt over the next decade, and push the total cost of extending the tax cuts to $5 trillion, according to estimates from the CRFB and the Tax Foundation. Around 92% of the cut would benefit households in the top 10% of earners, according to the CRFB.The SALT question aside, even if Democrats take control of the House of the Representatives—supplying a brake on Trump’s policy goals—tax experts expect many of these tax provisions to be extended. (As of Friday morning, the outcome had yet to decided). “These are popular changes that benefit not only ‘the rich,’ but also the average American taxpayer,” says Logan Alec, a certified public accountant. “Given how much the Biden administration has committed to not raising taxes for those making less than $400,000, it would be a terrible look in the 2026 mid-terms for House Democrats to oppose these popular tax changes.”Proposed tariffs will ’cause prices to rise’Trump has proposed a number of other tax cuts, including not taxing tipped wages or Social Security benefits, ending taxes on overtime pay and reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% for domestic manufacturers and 20% for other companies. At the same time, Trump has proposed a “universal” tariff on imported goods, ranging from 10% to 60% on Chinese goods. Economists say this could result in Americans paying more for pretty much everything. Ben Johnston, COO of Kapitus, which offers loans to small- and medium-sized businesses, says long term, this could help some manufacturing industries in the U.S. But in the nearer term, they could do exactly the opposite of what voters want: Raise prices even higher and eliminate jobs.“In the short to medium term, these tariffs are likely to drive inflation significantly higher and cause significant disruption to the global supply chain, threatening many U.S. jobs at manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers,” Johnston says. Kapitus notes that higher tariffs will “certainly cause prices to rise for U.S. consumers,” as they increase the cost of the product being imported, which is then passed on to the consumer. Though Trump insists the foreign countries that produce the goods will pay the tariffs, economist say such an outcome is not realistic.“This will not only spur inflation but will lower overall consumption, slowing the economy,” he says. Overall, though, he notes it can be difficult to predict exactly how things will shake out long term. “We can expect U.S. exports to impacted nations to be struck by retaliatory tariffs, reducing demand for goods produced in the U.S. and sold abroad.”A newsletter for the boldest, brightest leaders: CEO Daily is your weekday morning dossier on the news, trends, and chatter business leaders need to know. Sign up here.
