Good morning, Peter Vanham here in Geneva.The U.S. stock market has been on a rally since the election of Donald Trump as America’s 47th President. But in Europe, the mood has been less celebratory among business leaders – and its markets.Jacques Vandermeiren, the CEO of the Port of Antwerp-Bruges, Europe’s second-largest port, told me he was most concerned by the prospect of tariffs on European manufacturers.“We fear there’s not a lot of good news,” he told me on the phone from Antwerp. “If Trump puts in place tariffs of up to 10 percent, we’ll deal, but if it goes to 25 percent or beyond we see export flows fall back dramatically or cease entirely,” he said.“We saw it with steel in the first Trump presidency. If it happens again, it will be a big blow to that industry, which is already suffering.” The same could happen to other export-oriented industries, such as the European food, beverage, and agricultural industry. European business leaders “should be worried, and getting prepared,” Swiss-American economist Richard Baldwin told me as well, on the phone from Lausanne. (He wrote an excellent analysis on “Trump, trade and geopolitics” for IMD earlier this week.) “We could go to tariffs that we haven’t seen since the 1930s,” he said. And unlike in the first Trump presidency, Europe is unlikely to get a pass. “Trump Season Two will involve tariffs that are a lot higher, on a much broader range of goods, and from a lot more countries.”Europe is also likely to face a double whammy from a renewed trade war. Beyond the direct effects of tariffs on its goods, it is likely to be a victim of what Baldwin calls “whack-a-mole trading” by China. EVs and other goods that Chinese companies can no longer export to the U.S. could flood the European market instead. The other aspect that he “worries about just as much”, Vandermeiren told me, is the risk of Trump-enabled geopolitical crises. “If an action against Iran leads to the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea becoming unnavigable, it will have gigantic consequences. Southern European ports may literally disappear from the map,” he said.Is there no silver lining, then? “If there is one, it is perhaps that Europe needed such a shock, so it can close its ranks, and increase the sense of urgency, which was already present, to make Europe competitive again,” Vandermeiren said. On that note: we’ll also discuss the “New Global Order” at our Fortune Global Forum, which takes place in New York on November 11-12. President Trump’s “Season One” (and possible “Season Two”) Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, will be among those weighing in. You can apply for last-minute attendance here. (It pays to hurry, as interest in the Forum surged since the election.)More news below. Peter Vanhampeter.vanham.@fortune.comFollow on LinkedInTOP NEWSInsider CEO or outsider?The recent appointment of an insider CEO at Estée Lauder and an outsider CEO at Ross Stores is highlighting the debate between which type of leader performs better. Analysts say that insiders can skip the adjustment period and implement changes quickly, though an outsider can bring a much-needed fresh perspective. FortunePowell won’t resign if askedFed Chair Jerome Powell announced on Thursday that he would not step down from the position if president-elect Trump asked him to resign. Trump previously said he would not nominate him to the position again when his term ends in 2026, but also would not fire him immediately. Fortune Goldman Sachs sees M&A bump under TrumpGoldman Sachs analysts predicted a 20% increase in M&A activity next year under the incoming Trump administration. The Biden Administration, alongside FTC chair Lina Khan, have been stricter about mergers they say could negatively affect consumers. FortuneAROUND THE WATERCOOLERIn the wake of an election that divided the workplace, CEOs must inspire unity by Alan FleischmannSam Altman may have dropped millions of dollars—and OpenAI shares—to buy a single URL by Marco Quiroz-GutierrezThe next time you go under the knife, there’s a good chance a robot will hold the scalpel by Sage LazzaroRay Dalio says ‘all Americans’ should be happy with the election outcome because a peaceful power transfer is a massive ‘risk reduction’ by Sasha RogelbergTrump’s victory reveals secret Republicans: Joe Rogan-obsessed Gen Z men by Chloe BergerI went to Harris’s concession speech—here’s what I heard from Black women by Sheryl EstradaThis is the web version of CEO Daily, a newsletter of must-read global insights from CEOs and industry leaders. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.
