Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月06日
No matter who wins the election, experts expect ‘a significant number’ of rich Americans to flee the country
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

美国富人阶层正越来越多地寻求第二居住地或公民身份,以应对日益加剧的政治两极分化和经济不确定性。无论谁赢得2024年总统大选,移民顾问都预计申请数量将激增。特朗普的政策和承诺,尤其是“让美国再次伟大”的口号,更进一步加剧了富人逃离的趋势。另一方面,哈里斯的潜在政策,如对未实现资本收益的征税,也可能促使一些富人寻求离开。这种现象反映了美国社会日益加深的政治分歧,以及富人对未来不确定性的担忧,他们希望拥有一个安全的后备方案,即使这意味着离开他们熟悉的土地。

🤔 **美国富人正在寻求第二居住地或公民身份,以应对政治两极分化和经济不确定性。** 移民顾问预测,无论谁赢得2024年总统大选,申请数量都将激增,其中许多人出于对未来家庭福祉的担忧,而非单纯的税务考虑。

🇺🇸 **特朗普的政策和承诺,特别是“让美国再次伟大”的口号,加剧了富人逃离的趋势。** 许多高净值人士不愿生活在“MAGA美国”,因此正在寻求国外居住地作为“保险”。

🤔 **即使哈里斯赢得大选,也可能导致一些富人离开。** 例如,对未实现资本收益征税的提案,可能导致大量富人移民,尽管目前仅针对净资产超过1亿美元的人群。

🌍 **美国社会日益加深的政治分歧和对未来的担忧,推动了富人寻求海外“Plan B”。** 即使哈里斯胜选,社会两极分化依然存在,许多人仍然希望寻找国外避风港。

💰 **富人有能力执行他们的担忧,并至少拥有一个备选方案。** 他们拥有更多选择,可以寻求更安全的居住环境,而普通民众则缺乏这种能力。

It’s a common joke that the Canadian immigration website crashes the morning after the U.S.’ election day, Christopher Willis, managing partner at global residence provider, Latitude Consultancy, tells Fortune. It’s not unheard of either, as the site crashed when former President Donald Trump won in 2016.This 2024 presidential race was deemed by some as one of the closest in recent history. As Americans wait with bated breath, some wealthy households scramble for the closest exit. It’s not necessarily a new story: The rich have always found a way to escape danger first, whether it be finding the first life raft out of the Titanic or a second passport to Europe. Advisors for the rich say no matter which side wins, they expect an increase in applications post-election. Citizenship-by-investment programs have been around for some time now, but gained traction during the early pandemic as rich people looked to retrain their mobility during lockdown. Now, political division is fueling the business for second passports. “We’re expecting a surge of interest, irrespective [of who wins],” said Willis, explaining that before President Biden withdrew from the race, many saw Trump winning the presidency as “a foregone conclusion.” Now, “people are saying, well, let’s just wait and see.” Noting there’s been “a bit of a calm before the storm,” Willis still expects “a very busy end of the year.”David Lesperance, an international tax and immigration advisor working with the ultra-wealthy, has worked for families seeking second residency or citizenship since the 1990s. At first, the first motive was tax-driven, he tells Fortune. But since 2016, there’s been a 400% increase in Americans who seek a profession to execute a backup plan—and four out of five of these clients are motivated by “non-tax concerns for the future well-being of their families,” something Lesperance attributes to the increased political polarization over the last two election cycles. “Americans are engulfed in a political wildfire,” Lesperance said. “Their natural reaction is to fight the political wildfire through voting, lobbying, political donations etc. However, many realize that even with their most earnest firefighting efforts, it is called a wildfire for a reason. That is why they are getting the fire insurance of a second residence or citizenship.”The rich are looking to leave no matter who winsMore than half (53%) of American millionaires tell global citizenship financial advocacy group Arton Capital they plan to leave the U.S. after the election—no matter the result, reports CNBC. Younger respondents were most interested in international migration.“The rising political division at home is prompting many affluent Americans to explore a “Plan B” overseas,”  Armand Arton, CEO and chairman at Arton Capital, said, adding that it fuels “unprecedented interest” in said programs. “Economic uncertainty is a common thread, with a majority of both Harris and Trump voters fearing for the future of the economy. This trend is unlikely to abate in the immediate wake of the election.”Americans across the country are anxious about the state of the election, but rich people are able to execute on their fears and at least have a second option. “Many Americans have a justifiable concern for their family’s well-being, but wealthier Americans have the financial means to seek out more options than their average fellow citizen,”  Lesperance said, adding “they do not want to live in the society that they fear their political opponents will create.”Trump’s oversized impact on wealthy fleeing AmericaBillionaires and millionaires back candidates on both sides of the aisle this election cycle, which means the rich might be applying to second-residency programs either way the cookie crumbles. But Trump, perhaps, fuels this phenomenon even more than Harris. “Trump is probably a little bit more polarizing than Harris,” says Willis, noting most of his clientele is “probably more Democrat, only because a lot of people are worried about Trump having another four years.”Indeed, Trump’s promises of Project 2025 will likely create an exodus of those that have the resources to leave. “I believe you will see a significant number of affluent Americans immediately move abroad [if Trump wins],” said Lesperance, adding that numbers will likely increase if Trump carries out some of his campaign promises. He added that most Americans looking for a safety net of a second residence are high-net-worth individuals “who simply do not want to live in ‘a MAGA America.’”Some wealthy people would still leave if Harris winsEven if Trump is poised to scare away more wealthy Americans if he wins, a Harris presidency could also cause some movement. Some rich people might be concerned about proposals regarding larger taxes, such as a proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, notes Lesperance.Such a proposal would lead to “numbers of expatriates explod[ing],” he posited. “Although currently proposed to apply to those with a minimum $100 million in net worth, they know that this definition of “wealthy” can easily be changed to a lower figure,” he said of taxation policies backed by Harris.Then comes the larger disillusionment of the race being so close in the first place, which could still lead to some wealthy people calling it quits or at least looking for another place as a backup. “Even if Kamala Harris wins the US presidency, her supporters know that almost half of their fellow citizens want a MAGA America,” says Lesperance. “The ripping away of the mask of polite society and the exposure of ugliness underneath will still inspire a significant number of Americans to seek solace abroad.” Upcoming event: Join business's brightest minds and boldest leaders at the Fortune Global Forum, convening November 11 and 12 in New York City. Thought-provoking sessions and off-the-record discussions feature Fortune 500 CEOs, former Cabinet members and global Ambassadors, and 7x world champion Tom Brady–among many others.

See the full agenda here, or request your invitation.

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

美国富人 政治两极分化 第二居住地 移民 特朗普
相关文章