Contributor 2024年11月05日
How Apple learned to stop worrying and laugh at the Microsoft Zune
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本文回顾了苹果公司历史上多次被预测“即将倒闭”的经历,从iPod时代微软Zune的挑战到智能手表时代Trip Chowdhry的“60天论”,这些预言最终都未能成真。文章指出,尽管苹果也曾犯错,但其凭借创新产品和强大的市场地位,已成为全球最有价值的公司之一,其“末日”预言也逐渐消失。文章通过这些案例,揭示了市场对科技巨头的预测往往存在偏差,以及苹果公司强大的韧性和持续创新的能力。

🍎 **iPod的成功奠定了苹果的未来:**尽管当时Mac电脑市场表现不佳,但iPod的巨大成功为苹果带来了稳定的收入和发展基础,使其摆脱了90年代的困境,为日后的iPhone等产品奠定了基础。

⌚ **微软Zune的挑战和“免费音乐”的传言:**微软曾试图挑战iPod的市场地位,甚至传言微软会为用户提供免费的音乐库,以吸引用户转向Zune。但Zune最终失败,iPod的成功也为苹果进军智能手机市场奠定了基础。

🤦 **Trip Chowdhry的“60天论”:**2014年,Trip Chowdhry预测苹果在智能手表领域如果没有突破,将在60天内消失。然而,苹果推出的Apple Watch取得了成功,再次证明了这些“末日”预言的荒谬。

📈 **苹果成为全球最有价值的公司:**经过多年的发展,苹果已经成为全球最有价值的公司之一,其强大的市场地位和持续的创新能力使其稳固了行业领先地位。

🤔 **“末日”预言的消失:**随着苹果的持续成功,市场上关于苹果“即将倒闭”的预言也逐渐消失,这反映了市场对科技巨头预测的偏差以及苹果强大的韧性和持续创新的能力。

Macworld

Apple released its quarterly results last week and tl;dr: numbers make my eyes glaze over, charts just make me want pie, it’s doing just fine. It occurs to the Macalope that younger readers may not remember the days when Apple was just one bad move from going out of business.

Oh, not the mid-1990s when it was actually one bad move from going out of business. No, the Macalope’s talking about the first decade and a half of this century when it was continually, laughably, and against all evidence argued that Apple, now the most valuable company in the world depending on which day you look, was said to be teetering on a precipice that only very clever online pontificators could identify.

Here in our Earth reality, however, once the iPod became a hit, Apple’s future was pretty secure. It was not guaranteed the success that it’s achieved since, but it was going to be fine. The iPod line was a viable company on its own, without the Mac, which continued to improve and drag itself out of the doldrums of the 1990s.

Yet, this thought persisted. Apple couldn’t be successful. That’s not how things worked.

When Microsoft announced the Zune (which you kids might know from a joke in a popular superhero movie) many pundits suggested it was game over for the iPod. After all, Microsoft had always beaten Apple before, right?

The Macalope is going to tell a story that he can’t back up because finding old things on the internet is broken so you’ll just have to take his word for it. But he distinctly recalls that some even suggested that Microsoft would just give users a new license to any existing music they might have in their library–e.g. iTunes–in order to grease the skids for the Zune revolution, covering any associated costs itself because Microsoft was just that powerful and cool and Apple just that weak and its parents dressed it funny.

Needless to say, this didn’t happen, whether for technical reasons or because Microsoft was not in the habit of giving things away for free. But what did happen was the Zune fizzled, the iPod won and Apple parlayed its success into the iPhone. The rest is history.

Actually, that’s also history. Assuming the “Microsoft will pay for your music” wasn’t a Macalope fever dream.

IDG

Despite the iPod’s unrivaled success, pundits still spent years predicting Apple’s doom. At least seven more years. To the Macalope’s recollection, the last person to really lean into Apple Doomerism–lean so far into it that he crashed right through it into the adjacent room like the Kool-Aid Man, startling the poor family who was living next door–was Trip Chowdhry. You remember Trip, right? AI is the thing everyone has to be in right now, but back in 2014, it was smartwatches. And before Apple introduced the Apple Watch, Chowdhry opined:

“They only have 60 days left to either come up with something or they will disappear,” Mr. Chowdhry told CNBC.

That was 10 years ago. Since then, this kind of… rhetoric? Is that the right word? Gibberish implies it’s unintelligible and that is clearly easy to understand, if just cosmically wrong. Flatulent is directionally correct, but too closely associated with its scatological meaning. Fatuous is pretty good.

So, how about “flatuous”? Pompous, silly, pointless and full of hot air.

You don’t see this kind of flatuous commentary about Apple much anymore. With good reason. Apple is obviously just a really big company now and it has been for years. It still makes some mistakes, but it’s certainly not going out of business any time soon.

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苹果 iPod Apple Watch 科技巨头 市场预测
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