Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月05日
Polymarket users who bet on the presidential election might not see payouts until the inauguration
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2024年美国总统大选结果预测市场充满不确定性。Polymarket预测市场显示特朗普领先,但同时警告称,结果可能要到就职典礼当天才能确定。市场将根据美联社、福克斯和NBC的联合报道结果来判定,若三家媒体无法达成一致,则市场将持续开放至2025年1月20日就职典礼。Polymarket还开设了一个以就职典礼结果为依据的市场,目前特朗普胜出的概率为56%。尽管一些预测市场上特朗普胜出的概率有所下降,但Polymarket仍显示其胜选概率为58%。专家认为,选举结果可能面临重新计票、法律挑战和延迟等情况,因此最终结果可能需要较长时间才能确定。

🤔 **Polymarket预测市场显示特朗普领先,但结果可能要到就职典礼当天才能确定。** 市场将根据美联社、福克斯和NBC的联合报道结果来判定,若三家媒体无法达成一致,则市场将持续开放至2025年1月20日就职典礼。

📈 **Polymarket还开设了一个以就职典礼结果为依据的市场,目前特朗普胜出的概率为56%,哈里斯为42%。** 这反映了市场对选举结果的不确定性。

⚠️ **专家预计选举结果可能面临重新计票、法律挑战和延迟等情况,尤其是关键战场州。** 这使得选举结果的确定时间难以预测。

📅 **2025年1月6日,国会将认证选举结果。** 根据2022年对选举人团投票程序的修改,副总统无权在主持国会联席会议时接受或拒绝选举人团的投票。

⏳ **选举结果可能需要较长时间才能确定,需要耐心和警惕。** 专家建议不要期望能够很快获得确切的结果。

Although Polymarket still shows a big lead for Donald Trump, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market added a message warning users about how long it could take for payouts on their bets. A banner atop the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market suggests we may not know until Inauguration Day who the next president will really be.“This Presidential market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate,” according to Polymarket. “In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.”Polymarket has since opened a market that is resolved solely by who gets inaugurated, set to happen on Jan. 20, 2025. Currently, that market shows a 56% chance of Trump being inaugurated, with Kamala Harris at about 42%. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a given event, and resolve only when that event actually happens. Polymarket users buy shares depending on which outcome they think is more likely. Share prices or “odds” rise and fall depending on demand. So if the event happens the way the trader predicted, the contract or “bet” will rise to $1 and pay out—or fall to $0 if it does not. While the odds of a Trump win have shrunk on some prediction markets, Polymarket shows a 58% chance as of Monday of the former president winning the election over Harris.In late October, Polymarket admitted one French national with “extensive trading experience” was responsible for about $28 million that was dumped into the presidential election market. This subsequently swayed the odds in Trump’s favor, but Polymarket said it found no evidence of market manipulation, instead saying the trader was “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.” However, political scientists, pollsters, and other prediction market experts continue to view the issue as market manipulation.Polymarket did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.Polymarket potentially keeping the market open until Inauguration Day could also suggest the election won’t be settled by steps taken by Congress in December and January to certify results, including a joint session on Jan. 6 when they count the electoral votes. When will we know official election results?While it’s nearly impossible to predict when the election results will be finalized, there is a certain level of likelihood Trump’s camp will contest election results if they don’t appear to turn out in his favor. After all, he did the same thing following the 2020 election, which led to recounts and the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. That means having clearcut election results tomorrow—or even this week—are unlikely.“With the current climate, it’s likely we won’t have a clear outcome on election night, especially given the legal and logistical complexities involved,” Adrienne Uthe, founder and strategic adviser for communications and risk management firm Kronus Communications, told Fortune. “Expect recounts, legal challenges, and potential delays in key battleground states.”Polymarket is hedging on this by extending the market timeline until the inauguration, she said, which reflects the uncertainty about when a final call will be made. But Michael J. Montgomery, a political scientist and former diplomat who teaches at the University of Michigan—Dearborn, instead thinks a “reliable call” of the race by reputable media organizations could be made as early as midnight Eastern Time on Tuesday, if not before. That is unless the race comes down to Pennsylvania, which can’t count early or mail-in votes until Election Day, he said. Still, Montgomery said to expect some contests by the Trump campaign.“The Trump campaign and its allies have invested so much in preparing to contest results in so many states that multiple challenges are a certainty,” he said. “I doubt, however, they will be any more successful this time than they were in 2020.” Polymarket’s warning suggests the cryptocurrency-based prediction market thinks results could be successfully challenged, but Montgomery said he thinks they’re wrong. What’s more, the certification of the election will be on Jan. 6, 2025, two full weeks ahead of the inauguration, he said.A 2022 change to the electoral vote process as a bipartisan reaction to the 2021 insurrection will be used this year, and one new condition will be particularly important this year: The vice president has no power to accept or reject Electoral College votes while presiding over the joint session of Congress. The new procedures also make it more difficult to raise objections about vote count, among other changes, according to Roll Call. In any event, though, it’s best not to expect concrete results early on.“This election could be a marathon, not a sprint,” Uthe said. “So, patience and vigilance will be essential.”Upcoming event: Join business's brightest minds and boldest leaders at the Fortune Global Forum, convening November 11 and 12 in New York City. Thought-provoking sessions and off-the-record discussions feature Fortune 500 CEOs, former Cabinet members and global Ambassadors, and 7x world champion Tom Brady–among many others.

See the full agenda here, or request your invitation.

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2024美国总统大选 Polymarket 选举预测 特朗普 就职典礼
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