With a population of just 2.6 million and one of the smallest economies in Europe, Moldova barely registers by most European Union metrics. Yet the small former Soviet republic wedged between EU member Romania and war-ravaged Ukraine has drawn outsized attention from the continent’s powerful democracies and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. After decades under the Kremlin’s influence, Moldova started a concerted shift toward the EU in 2020. That has touched a nerve with pro-Russian elements looking to pull it back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. What’s going on with Moldova, Russia and the EU? In a move aimed at loosening the Kremlin’s grip on the country, Moldova’s pro-European government held a referendum on EU membership on Oct. 20, opening a path for joining the bloc. Moldova voted yes by a margin of just 50.4%, amending the country’s Constitution to enshrine the EU accession goal. Moldova said Russia spent about €100 million ($108 million) to influence the first round of a presidential election and the referendum on the EU that were held on the same day. The US State Department said: “Russia did everything in its power to disrupt the election and referendum to undermine Moldova’s democracy.” Moscow has denied the allegations of meddling and called on Moldova’s government to present evidence of it happening. The Sunday election runoff will see pro-EU President Maia Sandu face off against pro-Russia politician and former general prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo. Sandu secured 42% of the vote in the first round, compared with about 26% for her opponent. What’s the history?Moldova was a republic in the Soviet Union, and its people forged deep societal ties with Russia that continue to this day. Most of Moldova’s population speaks both Romanian, the official language, and Russian. The connection is especially strong in two of Moldova’s regions: the Russia-controlled enclave of Transnistria and the autonomous region of Gagauzia, which is led by figures sympathetic to Moscow. Over the past three decades, Moldova has pivoted between the EU and Russia as different politicians tried to sway voters with promises of better living conditions in a country that ranks among the poorest in Europe.Moldova has made major progress toward EU integration, receiving candidate status in 2022 and officially starting accession talks in 2024. The shift produced results. Moldova now sends more than 90% of its exports to the EU — mostly agricultural products. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in October that the EU would allocate a record €1.8 billion over the next three years to support the country’s plan to join the bloc.Why is Moldova’s fate important to European security? Moldova is at a strategic crossroads, and a potential pro-Russian government could extend Putin’s influence beyond parts of Ukraine to the border with Romania. Putin has called the collapse of the Soviet Union the “greatest political catastrophe of the century.” He has opposed moves by former Soviet republics and allies to join the EU and the NATO military alliance, and has demonstrated a determination to rebuild Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet space. For the EU, bringing Moldova into the fold would send a message that the bloc remains a successful and expanding economic alliance, in a rebuke to European far-right nationalist forces that have been gaining in popularity. EU leaders will be closely watching the runoff vote. They’re concerned that the narrow Moldova referendum outcome, recent Russian military advances in Ukraine and a contested election in Georgia suggest Putin’s effort to stop Russia’s close neighbors integrating further with the West is succeeding. What is Russia’s interest in Transnistria?Transnistria, home to roughly 400,000 people, is one of a number of regions in former Soviet republics where Russia holds sway, with others including Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk areas of Ukraine and the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. Transnistria’s self-proclaimed leaders declared independence from Moldova in 1990. For now, no United Nations member has recognized the claim to statehood, including Russia. It has had troops in the Russia-speaking enclave since the early 1990s, saying their main tasks are peacekeeping and protecting ammunition depots. Moldova’s government has demanded that the troops leave, saying their presence is an unlawful breach of its sovereignty. Transnistria gives Putin a measure of economic leverage over Moldova: While Moldova has ended its reliance on Russian gas with the help of EU countries including neighboring Romania, it depends on Transnistria for about 90% of its electricity. How else is Moldova responding to the challenge from Russia?Pro-EU President Sandu has vowed to redouble the fight against corruption and speed up judicial reforms to the Moldovan state in the face of foreign interference. If successful, the moves would also bolster Moldova’s EU accession prospects as to join the bloc it needs to prove it has stable institutions and can guarantee democracy and the rule of law.The EU and the US are also helping Moldova bolster its cybersecurity to ward off pro-Russian hackers and sanctioning pro-Russian oligarchs and politicians.
