美国中期选举即将举行，共和党候选人特朗普和民主党候选人哈里斯在对外政策方面存在显著差异。新加坡外交官马哈布尼认为，哈里斯的胜选将更有利于地缘政治稳定，而特朗普的政策可能导致世界秩序的混乱。他指出，特朗普的政策倾向于将美国带回过去，而忽视了世界格局的重大变化。另一方面，尽管特朗普目前的支持率与哈里斯相当，但马哈布尼认为特朗普更有可能获胜。文章还讨论了美国两党对华政策的差异以及中美关系紧张对东南亚的影响，强调东南亚国家应团结合作，以应对来自中美关系的挑战。

🤔**马哈布尼认为哈里斯胜选将更有利于地缘政治稳定**：马哈布尼认为，如果哈里斯胜选，世界将更加平静。他指出，特朗普的政策倾向于将美国带回过去，而忽视了世界格局的重大变化，例如全球秩序的结构性调整。他认为，特朗普的政策缺乏适应性和前瞻性，可能会加剧世界局势的不稳定。特朗普提出的政策包括对所有进入美国的商品征收10%-20%的关税，拒绝为未达到其认为的国防支出标准的北约盟国提供防御，以及要求台湾为美国的保护支付更多费用。这些政策可能导致国际关系的紧张和不确定性，不利于全球稳定。因此，马哈布尼认为，哈里斯的胜选将更有利于维护全球稳定。 此外，马哈布尼也提醒人们不要低估特朗普。他认为，特朗普虽然行事风格“疯狂”，但并非“疯狂”到不具备政治能力。他指出，特朗普能够将美国政治的中心向其主张的方向转移，这本身就展现出其强大的政治手腕。因此，人们需要警惕特朗普可能带来的潜在风险。

📊**特朗普与哈里斯在对华政策方面存在差异**：美国两党都同意需要对中国采取新的经济制裁措施。特朗普威胁要对所有中国进口商品征收高达60%的关税，而民主党官员则推动更有针对性的措施，包括出口管制和对国内制造业的补贴，重点关注半导体和电动汽车等战略领域。特朗普的关税政策可能导致中国经济进一步放缓，而中国经济目前正面临着长期的房地产债务危机和消费疲软。高盛经济学家估计，60%的美国关税可能使中国GDP增长减少两个百分点。 尽管如此，马哈布尼也提醒人们不要低估中国。他指出，中国正在对机器人等战略产业进行大量投资，这些投资将在未来发挥重要作用。因此，美国需要谨慎制定对华政策，避免采取过度激进的措施，以免引发不必要的冲突。

🤝**东南亚国家应团结合作应对中美关系紧张**：中美关系的紧张也可能对东南亚地区造成复杂的影响。一些东南亚国家正在加深与美国的安保关系，但中国仍然是该地区最大的贸易伙伴。马哈布尼认为，东南亚国家可以通过“团结一致、共同努力”来保护自身利益，避免卷入中美之间的冲突。他认为，马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣和新任印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托等“强有力”和“经验丰富”的领导人可以为东南亚国家提供缓冲，帮助该地区在中美关系的博弈中保持稳定。 东南亚国家在处理与中美关系时，需要保持平衡，避免过度依赖任何一方。同时，也需要加强区域合作，共同应对来自外部的挑战。只有这样，东南亚国家才能在中美关系的博弈中保护自身利益，维护地区的和平与稳定。

U.S. voters will head to the polls in just over 24 hours in the most important political contest in 2024’s year of elections, with Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris presenting very different policy agendas regarding relations between the U.S. and the rest of the world. On Monday, Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute and veteran Singapore diplomat, suggested that a Democratic victory would be better for geopolitical stability. “I hope that Kamala Harris wins,” Mahbubani said during a session with Clay Chandler, Fortune executive editor for Asia, at the Insights Forum in Singapore. “The world will be a calmer place.”Mahbubani spent over 30 years in Singapore’s foreign service, and twice served as the Southeast Asian country’s representative at the United Nations. After stepping down from the foreign service, he served as the dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore between 2004 and 2017.A second Trump presidency will struggle with managing “the greatest structural changes to our world order in hundreds of years,” the diplomat argued. “The last thing you want is an erratic leader like Donald Trump coming in,” he said. “Instead of trying to figure out what these massive changes are and adapting to them intelligently, he wants to drive America back to the past and make America great again without making any adjustments.”Trump has promised to impose a broad 10-20% tariff on all goods entering the U.S. During his current presidential campaign, he’s said that he would not defend NATO allies against Russia if he deemed they had not contributed enough defense spending. He has also demanded that the island of Taiwan pay more for U.S. protection. But ‘momentum is with Trump’Yet Mahubani had a different view when it came to which candidate looked likely to win the election. “Momentum seems to be with [Trump],” he said. He again warned observers against underestimating the former president. “At the end of the day, Trump is crazy but he’s not mad,” he noted. “To take the massive center of the body politic and move it so much—that takes real skill.”U.S. polling averages show both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris with nearly equal levels of support heading into Election Day. Prediction markets on the whole give Trump a slightly larger chance to win, with odds narrowing significantly in the past few days. (Fortune previously reported that Polymarket, a major prediction market, was rife with “wash trading,” or fake trading meant to give a false impression of high activity.)ASEAN in a U.S.-China contestBoth U.S. political parties agree on the need for new economic penalties on China. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs as high as 60% on all Chinese imports. By comparison, Democratic officials are pushing more targeted measures, including export controls and subsidies for domestic manufacturing, focused on strategic sectors like semiconductors and electric vehicles.New Trump tariffs could slow down the Chinese economy, already struggling with a years-long property debt crisis and relatively weak consumption. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that 60% U.S. tariffs could shave two percentage points off China’s GDP growth.Yet Mahbubani warned against “underestimating” China, pointing to Beijing’s investments in strategic industries like robotics. “All the investments that the Chinese are making today are going to pay up,” he continued.Worsening tensions between the U.S. and China could also complicate matters for Southeast Asia, which preserves close ties with both powers. Several Southeast Asian countries are deepening their security ties with the U.S., yet China remains the region’s largest trading partner. Southeast Asia can protect itself against these tensions if it “sticks together and works together,” Mahbubani said. The diplomat pointed to Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim and new Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto as examples of “strong” and seasoned” leaders.“Strong leaders can provide a buffer for ASEAN in a U.S.-China contest,” he said.