距离2024年美国总统大选投票仅剩几天，一项备受关注且准确度高的艾奥瓦州民调显示，副总统哈里斯在该州的支持率出现惊人逆转，领先于特朗普。此前，特朗普在该州一直保持领先优势。民调显示，哈里斯的支持率来自65岁以上选民和独立选民，尤其是女性选民的支持转向了她。艾奥瓦州此前被认为不是摇摆州，但该州最近颁布了严格的堕胎法，哈里斯将堕胎权作为竞选核心议题，这可能导致选民态度发生变化。该民调结果引发关注，因为它可能影响其他中西部州的选情，这些州将在决定大选中发挥关键作用。不过，也有人对该民调结果表示怀疑，认为其结果可能不准确。

🤔**艾奥瓦州民调结果显示哈里斯领先特朗普**: 最新艾奥瓦州民调显示，哈里斯以47%的支持率领先特朗普的44%，这是自9月以来民调结果首次出现逆转。9月份的民调显示特朗普领先哈里斯4个百分点，而在6月份的民调中，特朗普则领先当时的候选人拜登18个百分点。这种突然的转变让许多人感到意外，民调公司总裁J. Ann Selzer表示，哈里斯的领先优势主要来自65岁以上选民和独立选民，尤其是女性选民的支持转向了她。这表明，选民的投票意向在临近大选之际发生了明显的变化，而哈里斯在某些关键群体中的支持率显著提升。 艾奥瓦州在过去一直被认为是共和党倾向的州，但在2008年曾投票支持民主党总统候选人奥巴马。然而，近年来，艾奥瓦州的政治倾向逐渐转向共和党。此次民调结果的逆转，可能与该州最近颁布的严格堕胎法有关。哈里斯在竞选活动中将堕胎权作为核心议题，这可能吸引了部分选民的支持，从而导致民调结果出现变化。这说明，社会热点议题和候选人的政治立场，会对选民的投票意向产生重大影响。

📅**艾奥瓦州在2024年大选中地位的变化**: 艾奥瓦州在2024年大选中可能不再是一个稳固的共和党州。过去，艾奥瓦州被认为是共和党的票仓，但在2008年曾投票支持奥巴马。然而，近年来，该州的政治倾向逐渐转向共和党。此次民调结果显示，哈里斯在该州的支持率超过了特朗普，这表明艾奥瓦州的选情可能出现变化。该州最近颁布的严格堕胎法，可能导致部分选民对共和党候选人产生不满，从而转向支持民主党候选人。哈里斯在竞选活动中强调堕胎权，也可能吸引了部分选民的支持。因此，艾奥瓦州在2024年大选中可能成为一个摇摆州，其选举结果将对最终的选举结果产生重要影响。 此外，预测市场也开始更多地倾向于哈里斯。一位顶级数据科学家表示，特朗普曾经强大的领先优势已经消失。这表明，市场预期也发生了变化，越来越多的投资者和分析师认为哈里斯更有可能赢得大选。这说明，民调结果和预测市场的结果，都反映了选民态度的变化和对选举结果的预期。

📊**民调结果的意义及争议**: Selzer & Co.的艾奥瓦州民调被认为是黄金标准调查，其结果可能对其他中西部州的选情产生影响。2020年，Selzer的民调显示特朗普和其他共和党人在艾奥瓦州保持领先优势，但最终拜登以微弱优势赢得了该州的胜利。2020年的结果表明，民调结果可能存在偏差，但同时也提醒人们，不要过分依赖民调结果。 此次民调结果也引发了一些争议。民调专家Nate Silver表示，Selzer的民调“可能”是错误的，尽管他承认Selzer是其评价最高的两位民调专家之一。这表明，即使是经验丰富的民调专家，也无法完全保证民调结果的准确性。在许多民调结果出现偏差的情况下，Selzer的民调结果仍然引发了人们的关注和讨论。这说明，在评估民调结果时，需要保持谨慎的态度，并结合其他信息来源来判断其准确性。

With just a few days before the final votes are cast in the 2024 presidential election, a closely watched poll with a track record of accuracy showed a shocking reversal in a Midwestern state.The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. That’s flipped from September, when the poll showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris. In June, the poll had Trump leading Joe Biden, who was still in the race at the time, by 18 points. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told the Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.” Selzer attributed Harris’s sudden lead to voters over 65 years old as well as independent voters, especially women, shifting toward the vice president.Iowa was not considered a swing state in 2024 as it has trended more Republican after voting for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008. But political observers noted that Iowa now has an abortion law that bans the procedure after about six weeks into pregnancy, with limited exceptions. And Harris has made abortion rights a key message of her campaign.Prediction markets have also tilted more toward Harris in recent days, with a top data scientist saying that Trump has lost his once-formidable lead.Meanwhile, Selzer’s Iowa Poll is considered a gold-standard survey and could have implications in other Midwestern states that will help decide the election.For example, her final poll in 2020 indicated that Trump and other Republicans maintained big leads in the state, despite other surveys that pointed to a tight race. In fact, other polls were so promising for Biden that he even made a campaign stop there. But Trump won Iowa by 8 percentage points, and Selzer’s numbers also served as a warning that other states in the region wouldn’t back Biden as much as the consensus had suggested. Four years ago, the critical “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania went for Biden by razor-thin margins.Those states are dead heats again with Trump leading in some recent data, but the stunning numbers out of Iowa could point to more Midwest support for Harris than was previously thought.Still, the Iowa survey was met with some skepticism, with polling guru Nate Silver saying Selzer will “probably” be wrong. That’s even has he acknowledged that she is among his two highest-rated pollsters.“In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status,” Silver wrote late Saturday. Upcoming event: Join business's brightest minds and boldest leaders at the Fortune Global Forum, convening November 11 and 12 in New York City. Thought-provoking sessions and off-the-record discussions feature Fortune 500 CEOs, former Cabinet members and global Ambassadors, and 7x world champion Tom Brady–among many others.

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