美国共和党参议院即将迎来新一届领导层，现任领袖麦康奈尔将于明年1月卸任。南达科他州参议员约翰·图恩和德克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁成为接替麦康奈尔的热门人选。两人都属于共和党传统派，在政策方面较为一致，但都表示希望以更开放的方式领导参议院。选举结果目前尚不明朗，佛罗里达州参议员里克·斯科特也加入竞争，可能成为搅局者。此外，特朗普的支持也可能成为决定性因素，一些参议员呼吁他不要介入。两位候选人都在积极争取支持，包括为其他共和党参议员竞选筹款。最终，谁将成为共和党参议院的新领袖，并可能在共和党赢得足够席位的情况下成为下一任参议院多数党领袖，值得关注。

🤔**两位候选人背景及相似之处：**约翰·图恩和约翰·科宁都是共和党内传统派，与麦康奈尔理念相近，都受到同事的喜爱。他们都试图与麦康奈尔划清界限，表明自己支持特朗普，尽管此前两人都与特朗普发生过冲突。两人在政策方面也较为一致，在一些议题上与民主党人合作，例如科宁曾参与两党联合枪支立法。他们都积极为其他共和党参议员竞选筹款，并进行全国范围内的拉票活动，图恩已为共和党参议员筹集超过3100万美元，科宁在其22年的参议员生涯中筹集超过4亿美元。 两位候选人试图在竞选中寻找差异化，尽管他们都属于共和党内较为传统的一派，但都表示希望以更开放的方式领导参议院。图恩表示希望赋予参议员和委员会更多权力，并开放修正案程序，但不会削弱领导人的权力。科宁则呼吁对共和党领袖实行任期限制，以鼓励更多参议员参与领导层工作。

🤝**特朗普的支持可能成为关键因素：**特朗普的支持可能会影响选举结果，一些参议员呼吁他不要介入，认为这可能会适得其反。但两位候选人都与特朗普保持密切联系，并参加了特朗普的竞选活动。斯科特是特朗普的长期朋友，并一直将其定位为特朗普的坚定盟友，特朗普可能会支持斯科特，从而为他赢得更多选票或增加其影响力。 特朗普的支持可能成为决定性因素，但目前尚不清楚他是否会介入。一些参议员认为，特朗普应该与下一任领导人合作，无论是谁。而一些参议员则认为，特朗普的支持可能会影响选举结果，甚至可能导致一些参议员投票给斯科特。

🤔**保守派参议员的态度：**一些共和党参议员在过去几年里与麦康奈尔发生过冲突，例如在乌克兰援助和批评特朗普等问题上。他们中的一些人曾在2022年选举后投票支持斯科特挑战麦康奈尔。目前尚不清楚图恩和科宁能否赢得这些参议员的支持。 一些保守派参议员，例如密苏里州参议员乔什·霍利，表示他们尚未做出承诺，但希望了解候选人如何推进立法工作以及在特朗普成为总统的情况下如何与他合作。一些保守派参议员希望削弱领导层的权力，并赋予个人参议员更多权力。李则提出了一系列候选人要求，但图恩和科宁尚未对此做出回应。

🗓️**选举时间及影响：**选举将于11月13日通过秘密投票进行，结果可能影响共和党未来的发展方向。如果共和党在周二的选举中赢得足够多的席位，获胜者可能会成为下一任参议院多数党领袖，并领导共和党数年。 选举结果将对共和党未来的发展方向产生重要影响。如果共和党赢得足够多的席位，获胜者可能会成为下一任参议院多数党领袖，并领导共和党数年。如果共和党在选举中失利，获胜者将面临更大的挑战，需要团结共和党内部的不同派系，以维护共和党的利益。

🤔**其他潜在候选人：**目前，除了图恩、科宁和斯科特外，还有可能出现其他候选人。一些参议员可能会在最后一刻宣布参选，这可能会进一步增加选举的不确定性。 选举结果目前尚不明朗，佛罗里达州参议员里克·斯科特也加入竞争，可能成为搅局者。另一个候选人仍然可能加入。选举结果将对共和党未来的发展方向产生重要影响，如果共和党在选举中赢得足够多的席位，获胜者可能会成为下一任参议院多数党领袖，并领导共和党数年。

South Dakota’s John Thune, McConnell’s current No. 2, and John Cornyn of Texas, who held that job before Thune, are the front-runners in the Nov. 13 secret ballot to replace McConnell. The Kentucky senator is stepping aside from the post in January after almost two decades as leader. The winner could steer the direction of the party for years to come and possibly become the next Senate majority leader if Republicans win enough seats in Tuesday’s election.The outcome is, for now, uncertain.Only a few Republican senators have publicly endorsed a candidate. Many say they are still undecided. The third senator in the race — Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who is dealing with his own reelection bid — could act as a spoiler. Another candidate could still jump in.In many ways, “the two Johns” are remarkably similar, making the choice difficult for their colleagues. Both are well-liked and, in the mold of McConnell, lean toward the more traditional wing of the Republican Party. But both have also suggested they will try to move on from the McConnell era with a more open approach.“I’m trying to find differentiation because they’re both great guys,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who has worked closely with both of them.The two men are also trying to distinguish themselves from McConnell by making clear that they support Donald Trump in this year’s presidential election. Like McConnell, they have both sparred with Trump in the past, especially after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. But both Thune and Cornyn have talked to Trump frequently in recent months, attended campaign events and visited his Florida home.Whether Trump wins, and if he endorses one of the contenders, could become a determining factor.“I don’t know what he’ll do,” Cornyn said of Trump in September. “But this is obviously an election between senators, and I think that’s where the voters are.”Some of the former president’s strongest allies in the Senate are urging him to stay above the fray. Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who is supporting Thune, says he’s been trying to talk Trump out of an endorsement. Trump understands “the need to work with whoever the next leader is,” Mullin said.Tillis suggested that a Trump endorsement could backfire.“You have to be careful with the psychology of the Senate,” Tillis said. “We know each other very well, and we spend hours and hours together. It’s a fairly small club.”Still, both Cornyn and Thune are keeping close to Trump. Cornyn met Trump on a trip to Texas in October and appeared at a rally in Nevada. Thune was at an event in August with Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.Thune, who said after the Jan. 6 attack that Trump’s efforts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power were “inexcusable,” told The Associated Press over the summer that he views their potential relationship as a professional one. If they both win their elections, Thune said, “we’ve got a job to do.”Scott, meanwhile, is a longtime friend of Trump’s and has positioned himself as a strong ally. Scott traveled to New York to support Trump during Trump’s hush money trial. Trump could endorse Scott in the contest, potentially winning more votes for the Florida senator or giving him leverage to influence the race.In addition to private meetings, both Thune and Cornyn have flown around the country to fundraise and campaign for their fellow senators.Thune has made more than two dozen campaign stops for GOP senate candidates, and aides say he has raised more than $31 million for Senate races this campaign cycle, including a $4 million transfer to the Senate Republican campaign operation.Cornyn has similarly gone around for candidates and poured money into Texas races. His aides emphasize his long history of fundraising for Republicans — more than $400 million during his 22 years in the Senate, his office says.On policy, the two men are similar, voting generally in step with the conference but working with Democrats at times. Cornyn is a longtime member of the Senate Judiciary Committee who took a leading role on bipartisan gun legislation two years ago. Thune worked across the aisle as a former chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.It’s unclear whether either could win support from the growing minority of Republican senators who battled McConnell in recent years as he championed Ukraine aid and criticized Trump. Many in that group voted for Scott when he challenged McConnell after the 2022 elections.In a potential overture to that group, Cornyn has called for a conference vote on instituting term limits for the Republican leader. “I believe the Senate needs more engagement from my colleagues, and that includes the opportunity for any member to serve in leadership,” Cornyn posted on X in March.Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, a member of the more conservative faction, said he has not made a commitment in the race but wants to know how they would move legislation and work with Trump if he is president. “I think some of this will come into focus after the election when we know what we’re dealing with, we know what our caucus is going to be,” Hawley said.Many in that group, including Scott and Utah Sen. Mike Lee, have pushed to take power away from leadership and empower individual senators. Lee has issued a series of candidate demands, but neither Cornyn nor Thune has so far shown interest in negotiating.But both of them have signaled that they hear the complaints.Thune indicated in the AP interview that he’s open to making changes to the leader’s role, but cautioned that he would not leave the position at the mercy of rank-and-file senators. He said he wanted to “empower our individual members or committees to do things through regular order” and open up the amendment process, but “I’m not going to make wholesale changes that weaken the leader position to where it’s just a free-for-all.”Tillis suggested in September that it would be a deal breaker for him if any of the candidates engaged in deal-making.“If you would be willing to weaken your position to satisfy a few votes, then you’re unfit to be leader, in my opinion,” Tillis said. “And I think most people think that way.”Upcoming event: Join business's brightest minds and boldest leaders at the Fortune Global Forum, convening November 11 and 12 in New York City. Thought-provoking sessions and off-the-record discussions feature Fortune 500 CEOs, former Cabinet members and global Ambassadors, and 7x world champion Tom Brady–among many others.

See the full agenda here, or request your invitation.