Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月03日
This country was the world’s first to ban imports of non-electric private cars. The switch to EVs has been bumpy
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埃塞俄比亚在今年早些时候宣布禁止进口非电动私家车,旨在推动电动汽车发展,减少碳排放,并缓解燃料补贴压力。然而,这一举措也带来了诸多挑战,包括首都亚的斯亚贝巴电力供应不稳定、电动汽车零部件稀缺、维修成本高昂等问题。许多消费者对电动汽车的可靠性和实用性表示担忧,二手汽油车市场依然活跃。尽管政府计划投资建设充电站和电池生产工厂,并预计大型水坝将在未来几年内提供充足电力,但电动汽车的普及之路仍面临着基础设施、技术和市场成熟度的考验。埃塞俄比亚的电动汽车转型之路,既是应对气候变化的积极尝试,也面临着诸多现实挑战,其能否成功,将取决于政府政策、基础设施建设和市场环境的协同发展。

🤔埃塞俄比亚政府为减少碳排放、缓解燃料补贴压力,于今年年初宣布禁止进口非电动私家车,并设定了到2030年每月进口50万辆电动汽车的目标。这一政策旨在推动国家向绿色经济转型,并利用即将投入使用的复兴大坝产生的电力支持电动汽车发展。埃塞俄比亚希望借此成为绿色经济的典范,但在电动汽车普及的道路上,仍面临着诸多挑战和不确定性,例如电力供应不稳定、电动汽车零部件稀缺、维修技术和服务不完善等问题,这些问题导致许多消费者对电动汽车的可靠性和实用性产生怀疑,也阻碍了电动汽车的快速普及。

🚗由于电动汽车零部件主要依赖进口,且维修技术和服务不完善,埃塞俄比亚的电动汽车市场面临着零部件供应紧张和维修成本高昂的问题。许多消费者反映,电动汽车的维修服务点少、价格高,且缺乏专业的维修技术人员。例如,亚的斯亚贝巴的一些维修人员表示,他们缺乏必要的工具、零部件和专业知识来维修电动汽车,而许多电动汽车则停放在车库或停车场,等待从中国进口的零部件。这种状况不仅给消费者带来了不便,也制约了电动汽车市场的发展。同时,电动汽车的保值率较低,也影响了消费者购买的积极性。

🔌埃塞俄比亚的电力供应基础设施尚不完善,电力供应不稳定,也制约了电动汽车的普及。在首都亚的斯亚贝巴,电力供应时断时续,给电动汽车的充电带来诸多不便。消费者反映,充电站数量不足,充电时间长,充电设施的可靠性有待提高。此外,政府计划建设的充电站和电池生产工厂,也需要时间和资金投入才能完成,这增加了电动汽车普及的不确定性。尽管政府承诺加大对充电基础设施的投资,但目前来看,充电基础设施的建设进度和发展水平难以满足电动汽车普及的需求。

🚧一些埃塞俄比亚人已经对电动汽车失去信心,开始转向二手汽油车市场。尽管政府的目标是到2030年每月进口50万辆电动汽车,但目前电动汽车在埃塞俄比亚的保有量仍然较少,仅占汽车总量的很小一部分。一些消费者在购买电动汽车后,由于遇到各种问题,例如电力供应不稳定、维修成本高昂等,最终选择将其转售。这表明,电动汽车市场尚未完全成熟,消费者的接受程度和信任度有待提高。二手汽油车市场依然活跃,一些消费者认为汽油车更加可靠,维修也更加方便。

💰埃塞俄比亚政府对汽油车征收高额税费,试图引导消费者转向电动汽车。然而,高额的税费也导致一些消费者选择购买价格相对较低的二手汽油车,例如2007年的丰田卡罗拉。一些消费者认为,与其购买价格昂贵且存在诸多问题的电动汽车,不如购买一辆二手汽油车,这样更加经济实惠,也更加可靠。高额的税费政策,在一定程度上,也抑制了消费者购买电动汽车的热情,加剧了消费者对电动汽车的观望态度。

As the price of fuel soared in Ethiopia earlier this year, Awgachew Seleshi decided to buy an electric car. That aligned with the government’s new efforts to phase out gas-powered vehicles. But months later, he’s questioning whether it was the right decision.He faces a range of issues, from the erratic supply of electricity in Addis Ababa, the capital, to the scarcity of spare parts.“Charging my car has been a challenge,” the civil servant said. “Spare parts that are imported from China are expensive, few mechanics are able to fix such cars and the resale value of such cars is poor.”Seleshi’s troubles point to wider challenges for Ethiopia. In January, the East African country became the first in the world to ban the importation of non-electric private vehicles.The decision eased pressure on authorities who spend scarce foreign currency to subsidize the cost of fuel, but it also reflected growing enthusiasm for electric vehicles as the world demands more green technologies to reduce climate-changing emissions.Earlier this month, Ethiopia’s government raised the price of fuel by up to 8% as part of a plan to gradually end all fuel subsidies in Africa’s second-most populous country.Authorities have claimed some success in enforcing the ban on non-electric vehicles entering Ethiopia, and more than 100,000 electric cars are now being imported into the country each month.The official target is to increase the monthly import figure to 500,000 by 2030. By that time, a big new dam Ethiopia has built on the Nile River is expected to be producing power at full capacity.Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in a televised address earlier this year, said the Grand Renaissance Dam will start generating more than 5,000 megawatts of electric power within a year. Authorities say such capacity would support the transition to electric vehicles.For now, many in Addis Ababa, a city of more than 5 million people, are doubtful the country can achieve its ambitious goals for electric vehicles without further needed infrastructure and services.The few garage owners who can fix broken electric cars say they are overwhelmed, while customers say they are being overcharged amid an apparent lack of competition.“There are two or three garages that can fix new energy vehicles in Ethiopia and many consumers lack awareness on how to take care of such vehicles,” said Yonas Tadelle, a mechanic in Addis Ababa. “As mechanics, we also lack the tools, the spare parts and the know-how to fix such cars.”Many EVs are now parked in garages and parking lots awaiting parts expected to come from China.Ethiopia’s minister in charge of transport, Bareo Hassen Bareo, has said he believes the country can be a model nation with a green economy legacy, with the prioritization of electric vehicles a key component.The government will invest in public charging stations, he told The Associated Press, and there are plans to create a plant manufacturing EV batteries locally to reduce reliance on imports.Private efforts have included a collaboration, which has since fizzled, between Olympian Haile Gebreselassie and South Korean carmaker Hyundai to make electric vehicles in Ethiopia. That effort is believed to have collapsed over the sourcing of materials.Samson Berhane, an economist based in Addis Ababa, said the sudden flood of electric vehicles into the local market despite poor infrastructure is making it difficult for customers to adapt comfortably. Some EVs sell for about $20,000.“Very few people are willing to take the risk of buying electric cars due to the lack of infrastructure, shortage of mechanics specialized in EV maintenance and the flooding of the market with Chinese brands that have questionable details and long-term visibility,” Berhane said.But he said he believes that Ethiopia is more than able to provide electricity to the expected 500,000 EV’s there within the next decade while fulfilling its industrial ambitions.Some Ethiopians are already giving up on electric vehicles, and the secondhand trade in gasoline-powered vehicles continues. There are at least 1.2 million vehicles across Ethiopia, and only a small fraction are electric ones.Businessman Yared Alemayehu bought a Chinese-made electric vehicle that he had hoped to use for a taxi service. He knew the car had a mechanical defect, but he believed it could be fixed. A mechanic disagreed.In the end, he sold the car at a loss and bought a Toyota Corolla — a car made in 2007 that he felt was more reliable — for the equivalent of $20,000, a sum that included the hefty taxes imposed on gasoline vehicles. Taxes can be higher than the cost of importing the vehicle.“In addition to having to charge my old electric car, it frequently broke, and the garage was overcharging, and the lineup at the garage was overwhelming us,” he said.Taxi driver Dereje Hailu, who had high hopes for his Chinese-made E-Star electric vehicle when he purchased it earlier this year, said his expectations had been dashed.“With such a car, I fear I might be stuck if I go far from Addis Ababa where there are no charging stations,” he said.Upcoming event: Join business's brightest minds and boldest leaders at the Fortune Global Forum, convening November 11 and 12 in New York City. Thought-provoking sessions and off-the-record discussions feature Fortune 500 CEOs, former Cabinet members and global Ambassadors, and 7x world champion Tom Brady–among many others.

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电动汽车 埃塞俄比亚 绿色经济 基础设施 能源转型
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