The Biden administration is reportedly considering capping sales of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips from US-based manufacturers like AMD and NVIDIA to certain countries, including those in the Middle East. The move represents concerns over the use of advanced AI chips for surveillance and military applications. AI technologies can be used to enhance the capabilities of autonomous drones, cyber warfare, sophisticated mass monitoring systems, and several other applications.
AMD and NVIDIA, the two leading AI chip manufacturers, could face restrictions on their export licenses for advanced AI chips. The AI chips from these twp tech giants power a range of applications, including data centers, machine learning models, and advanced analytics, which are critical for both commercial and military uses.
The discussion of capping sales of AI chips comes at a time when countries in the Middle East are investing heavily in AI technology. According to a report by PWC, AI could contribute $320 billion to the Middle East by 2030.
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While the UAE is expected to see the largest impact of AI with close to 14% of its 2030 GDP, the neighboring countries Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also ramping up their investments in AI. The restrictions could hinder the growing tech ambitions of these regions, and they can also have a major impact on the revenue of AI chip manufacturers.
With restricted access to advanced AI chips, countries in the Middle East could be forced to seek alternative solutions including developing their own semiconductor industries. It’s also possible that these nations might turn to China to fulfill their growing demand for AI chips.
Along with national security concerns, the US could also be worried about the Middle East's growing influence over the global AI industry. Although countries in the region are currently focused on developing basic AI chips, they could eventually advance to producing more sophisticated chips for military applications.
The United States has been concerned that UAE-based AI companies, such as G42, have historic ties with China, and this could provide China with an indirect route to obtain advanced AI chips. However, it's a bit ironic that this development comes just a few weeks after the Commerce Department eased rules to allow the Middle East easier access to advanced AI chips.
The full details and scope of the proposed restrictions are still under consideration. As the US government has not officially released any statement on this matter and it's also unclear whether these measures would be imposed in Biden’s term.
Last year, the United States banned the sale of advanced AI chips from AMD and NVIDIA to China and imposed export restrictions on several other countries to prevent these technologies from indirectly reaching China.
Some of the earlier restrictions on export to China banned the sale of the Nvidia H100, which is the processor of choice for AI firms in the U.S. Instead, Chinese companies gained access to modified versions, such as the Nvidia H800 or A800, which offered reduced performance. However, subsequent regulations from the U.S. government also banned the export of these slowed-down chips to China, further tightening the restrictions on AI-related technologies.
With the new restrictions in place, NVIDIA and AMD chips could be redirected to other markets with strong demand for US technologies. The AI chip manufacturer can also consider developing and selling less advanced, market-specific AI chips to the Middle East.
