Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年10月23日
Tesla is having a rough year—this week’s earnings may provide more of the same
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特斯拉短期策略不明,股价承压。今年其股价下跌13%,而标普500上涨23%。特斯拉在华尔街的地位下降,被博通取代。虽有诸多问题,但特斯拉仍专注于未来,如开发自动驾驶软件、推出机器人出租车、发展能源业务等,且公司提供的短期指导较少,导致股价波动。

🎯特斯拉短期策略不清晰,股价受影响,今年已跌13%,而同期标普500涨23%。特斯拉在所谓的‘Magnificent Seven’中地位被博通取代,后者股价过去三年涨约300%,特斯拉则跌近27%。

🚗尽管存在问题,特斯拉管理方式短期难改变。其 earnings calls 方式独特,先选零售投资者在类似 Reddit 平台上提交并被其他股东‘顶’的问题。很多零售投资者与分析师有相同担忧,如2025 年底能否开始生产更平价车辆。

🌟特斯拉注重未来发展,将继续致力于实现长期目标,包括开发‘全自动驾驶’软件、推出机器人出租车、建设能源业务等。公司提供的短期指导少,致股价波动,股东需适应这种情况。

This lack of clarity about Tesla’s short-term strategy is weighing on its share price. Heading into Wednesday’s Q3 earnings release, the stock is down 13% this year. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is up 23%.Tesla, long the buzziest of Wall Street darlings, has even lost its place among the tech giants in the so-called Magnificent Seven, replaced by semiconductor manufacturer Broadcom. The latter’s shares have risen roughly 300% over the past three years, while Tesla’s are down nearly 27% in that span.Don’t expect Tesla management to change its approach anytime soon, though, according to Morningstar senior equity strategist Seth Goldstein. “If they have a couple bad quarters, they don’t really care if the stock sells off,” Goldstein, who also chairs Morningstar’s electric vehicle committee, told Fortune last month.After the earnings miss in Q2, a senior tech analyst told Fortune that Musk came off as uneven and defensive on the call with analysts and investors. Goldstein said he wouldn’t go that far, especially because he didn’t witness anything he hadn’t before. Even when Tesla was one of the Street’s best performers, he said, he witnessed management laugh off and give condescending answers to skeptical analysts.Tesla does its earnings calls differently than most major companies. Instead of jumping into an analyst Q&A after management’s opening statements, Tesla first selects questions submitted by retail investors that are “upvoted” by other shareholders on a Reddit-style platform.Judging by some of the most popular questions on the site, however, many retail investors have the same concerns as analysts like Goldstein. The top two questions focus on whether Tesla is still on track to start production on a more affordable vehicle by the end of 2025, something Goldstein views as the company’s most likely growth driver in the near term.Musk and Tesla keep focus on the future Tesla shareholders, however, are likely used to the ups and downs by now. The company provides less short-term guidance than most high-profile companies, Goldstein said, which contributes to the stock’s volatility.Despite cooling EV demand this year, Goldstein expects EV sales to account for 30% of the auto market by 2030, up from 3% in 2020. He said Tesla will remain focused on fulfilling its long-term goals, whether that’s developing its “full self-driving” software (which currently requires close driver supervision); launching a robotaxi (Musk said it will be ready for 2027); or continuing to build its rapidly growing energy generation and storage business.“If they can execute all those, then the stock price will take care of itself, right?” he said. “It doesn’t matter what consensus says. It matters what they do, and if they are able to deliver their long-term goals, then the market will reward them accordingly.”Tesla’s management thinks in years, he said, not quarters. If shareholders are not on board, however, they might want to get off the boat.

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