Artificial Ignorance 2024年10月22日
YC is now 80% AI startups (S24)
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YC Demo Day 上涌现了大量的 AI 和 ML 公司,其中 194 家与 AI 或 ML 相关,占当前批次的 80%。尽管投资者开始质疑 AI 的投资回报率,但创业公司似乎仍然看好人工智能。AI 创业公司正在各个行业和用例中蓬勃发展,包括开发工具和 AI 运维、SaaS 和 B2B 工具、医疗保健和生物技术等。从通用 AI 助手到行业和任务特定的 AI "代理",这些代理旨在自动化整个工作职能,甚至发展到 "AI 员工" 的阶段。构建现实世界的 AI 系统需要大量基础设施和工具,因此 AI 技术栈正在不断成熟。YC 正在全力押注 AI 热潮,在过去三个批次中,YC 已经毕业了近 500 家与 AI 相关的公司。YC 的模式是尽可能多地拥有 AI 领域的赢家。然而,如此多的 AI 创业公司涌入相同的领域,最终谁能脱颖而出,获得网络效应和规模优势,主导其类别还有待观察。尽管我们正处于 "AI 革命" 的早期阶段,但目前涌现的公司缺乏足够的想象力,B2B SaaS 创业公司和开发工具过多,真正 "AI 原生" 的公司在哪里?

🚀 **AI 创业公司井喷:**YC Demo Day 上出现了大量的 AI 和 ML 公司,其中 194 家与 AI 或 ML 相关,占当前批次的 80%,展现出 AI 创业的热潮。

🤖 **从 AI 助手到 AI 代理:**AI 创业公司正在从通用 AI 助手转向行业和任务特定的 AI "代理",这些代理旨在自动化整个工作职能,甚至发展到 "AI 员工" 的阶段,例如 AI 销售助理、财务分析师、设计师、支持代表和批发买家等。

🏗️ **不断成熟的 AI 技术栈:**构建现实世界的 AI 系统需要大量基础设施和工具,因此 AI 技术栈正在不断成熟,包括数据整理平台、AI 可观测性工具、测试基础设施、幻觉缓解技术和对齐即服务等。

💰 **YC 全力押注 AI 热潮:**YC 正在全力押注 AI 热潮,在过去三个批次中,YC 已经毕业了近 500 家与 AI 相关的公司,展现出 YC 想要尽可能多地拥有 AI 领域的赢家。

🤔 **真正的 AI 原生公司在哪里?**尽管我们正处于 "AI 革命" 的早期阶段,但目前涌现的公司缺乏足够的想象力,B2B SaaS 创业公司和开发工具过多,真正 "AI 原生" 的公司在哪里?

It's time again for YC's Demo Day - which means it's time to unpack the flood of AI and ML companies launching out of the startup accelerator.

This time around, 194 companies were related to AI or ML - up from 158 in the last batch and a whopping 80% of the current batch.

While the broader investor community is beginning to question AI’s ROI, the startup community appears to still be bullish on artificial intelligence.

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Nowhere is safe from AI

AI startups are launching across a huge range of industries and use cases. Yet the top categories remained similar:

Nearly 40 categories were represented (depending on how you view it) from insurance and legal to manufacturing and mining to gaming and kids' entertainment. Clearly, no sector is safe from potential AI disruption.

From copilots to agents to employees

Another key shift is the move from generic AI assistants toward industry- and task-specific AI "agents" that aim to automate entire job functions. While some startups are still using "copilot" as a buzzword, clearly the name of the game is now "agents."

Or, in some cases, we're moving beyond agents to "AI employees": AI sales associates, financial analysts, designers, support reps, and wholesale buyers, to name a few.

The promise is that these AI agents can handle 80%+ of the repetitive, predictable parts of the role by fetching relevant information, drafting emails and documents, updating systems of record, and engaging in dialog. This would allow human workers to focus on higher-level strategy, edge cases, and relationship building.

It remains to be seen how well these AI agent products will actually work in practice, given the limitations and challenges of building with LLMs. Reliably embodying an "AI employee" is going to be extremely difficult, but seems to be the current pitch to investors.

The maturing AI stack

Building real-world AI systems is hard. From curating training data to prompt engineering to building evals and adding observability, modern LLM-driven apps require a lot of infrastructure and tooling.

As we've seen over the last few batches, the AI tech stack is continuing to mature. These days, we're still seeing several types of "AI Ops" companies:

It's still early days, and most AI systems don't even have "best practices" established yet. But

We're still in the early stages of the AI infrastructure ecosystem, and best practices remain to be established. However, an increasing number of startups are laser-focused on solving specific challenges AI developers face today.

AI Combinator

Paul Graham has long written about how the cost of starting a startup has decreased dramatically, enabling orders of magnitude more people to do it. In the past, those costs have been primarily in servers and infrastructure.

Now, training and serving ML models has dramatically decreased in cost - and YC appears poised to be going all-in on the AI boom. In the past three batches alone, YC has graduated nearly five hundred companies related to AI in some way. By backing such a large number of AI startups, YC is aiming to own a piece of as many winners as possible.

The recent decision to switch to four batches a year also enables this spray-and-pray approach. With AI advancing so rapidly, YC doesn't want to miss out on the next breakout company just because the timing didn't align with the traditional batch calendar.

But there's clearly tons of company overlap - even within a given batch. And with so many AI startups crowding into the same spaces, it remains to be seen which ones will break out and achieve the network effects and scale advantages to dominate their categories.

If you're a startup building yet another AI-enabled solution for sales or customer service, how do you think about differentiating yourself from your batchmates?

Looking ahead

Stepping back, the scale and diversity of the YC batch underscores that we are in the early innings of the "AI revolution." The core building blocks are in place (or are quickly being invented) to sustain this Cambrian explosion of AI applications.

If anything, the companies we're seeing aren't imaginative enough - with so many B2B SaaS startups and developer tools, I'm left wondering where all of the truly "AI-native" companies are.

Of course, many of these startups will fail. Some are too early, some will be outcompeted, some will simply not find product-market fit. But if YC's track record is anything to go by, a meaningful fraction will go on to create immense value and reshape industries over the next 5-10 years.

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YC Demo Day AI 创业 AI 代理 AI 技术栈 AI 原生
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