文章涵盖了对人类思维、动机、机构、过去和未来等多方面的思考。包括对抽象与具体、理想与自私的探讨，对音乐、政治等功能的思考，对预测市场、学术界等机构的分析，对历史发展模式的研究，以及对未来如外星人、人工智能等的展望。

🎯文章探讨了人类的思维方式，如抽象与具体的未来偏见、对自身思维的怀疑、不同观点的差异等，深入分析了人类在思考过程中存在的各种问题和现象。

💡在动机方面，文章涉及到信号传递、决策理论、音乐的功能、政治的本质等内容，揭示了人类行为背后的动机和影响因素。

🏛️对于人类的机构，文章讨论了预测市场、学术界、医学、法律等领域的现状和问题，以及可能的改进方向和解决方案。

📜在对过去的研究中，文章分析了农民和采集者的发展、历史的指数模式、失落的文明等，探讨了人类历史的演变和发展规律。

🌌最后，文章对未来进行了展望，包括外星人、UFO、人工智能等方面，思考了人类未来可能面临的挑战和机遇。

Published on October 20, 2024 2:01 AM GMT

Part 1: Our Thinking

Near and Far

1 Abstract/Distant Future Bias

2 Abstractly Ideal, Concretely Selfish

3 We Add Near, Average Far

4 Why We Don't Know What We Want

5 We See the Sacred from Afar, to See It Together

6 The Future Seems Shiny

7 Doubting My Far Mind

Disagreement

8 Beware the Inside View

9 Are Meta Views Outside Views?

10 Disagreement Is Near-Far Bias

11 Others' Views Are Detail

12 Why Be Contrarian?

13 On Disagreement, Again

14 Rationality Requires Common Priors

15 Might Disagreement Fade Like Violence?

Biases

16 Reject Random Beliefs

17 Chase Your Reading

18 Against Free Thinkers

19 Eventual Futures

20 Seen vs. Unseen Biases

21 Law as No-Bias Theatre

22 Benefit of Doubt = Bias

Part 2: Our Motives

Signaling

23 Decision Theory Remains Neglected

24 What Function Music?

25 Politics isn't about Policy

26 Views Aren't About Sights

27 Why Do Bets Look Bad?

28 Homo Hypocritus

29 Resolving Your Hypocrisy

30 Errors, Lies, and Self-Deception

Norms

31 Enforce Common Norms On Elites

32 Identity Norms

33 Exclusion As A Substitute For Norms, Law, & Governance

34 How Idealists Aid Cheaters

35 Beware Mob War Strategy

36 Automatic Norms

37 10 Implications of Automatic Norms

38 Automatic Norm Lessons

39 Automatic Norms in Academia

Fiction

40 Plot Holes & Blame Holes

41 Fairy Tales Were Cynical

42 Why Fiction Lies

43 Biases Of Fiction

44 Why We Fight Over Fiction

45 Stories Are Like Religion

46 More Stories As Religion

The Dreamtime

47 This is the Dream Time

48 DreamTime

49 Dreamtime Social Games

50 We Moderns Are Status-Drunk

51 Earth: A Status Report

52 On Teen Angst

Part 3: Our Institutions

Prediction Markets

53 Prediction Markets "Fail" To Moloch

54 Seeking Robust Credible Expertise Buyers

55 Prediction Markets Need Trial and Error

56 New-Hire Prediction Markets

57 Shoulda-Listened Futures

58 Brand Truth Narrowly

Academia

59 Fixing Academia Via Prediction Markets

60 Intellectual Prestige Futures

61 Academic Stats Prediction Markets

62 How To Fund Prestige Science

Medicine

63 Medical Doubts OpEd

64 Medical Market Failures

Paternalism

65 Paternalism Is About Status

66 Rulesy Folks Push Paternalism

67 Universal Basic Dorms

Law

68 Elites Must Rule

69 Status App Concept

70 Our Prestige Obsession

71 Yay Stability Rents

72 Conditional Harberger Tax Games

73 Reliable Private-Enough Physical Identity

74 Freedom Isn't Free

75 Quality Regs Say 'High Is Good'

76 Socialism: A Gift You'd Exchange?

77 Vouch For Pandemic Passports

78 Can We Tame Political Minds?

79 Consider Reparations

80 Regulating Infinity

81 Privately Enforced & Punished Crime

82 Fine Grain Futarchy Zoning Via Harberger Taxes

Part 4: Our Past

Farmers and Foragers

83 Fear Made Farmers

84 Forage vs Farm Future

85 Two Types of People

86 Forager v Farmer, Elaborated

87 Rome As Semi-Foragers

88 Self-Control Is Slavery

89 School Is To Submit

90 Why Grievances Grow

91 The World Forager Elite

History as Exponential Modes

92 The Great Cycle Rule

93 The Labor-From-Factories Explosion

94 Lost Advanced Civilizations

The Great Filter

95 Try-Try or Try-Once Great Filter?

96 Great Filter with Set-Backs, Dead-Ends

97 Seeing ANYTHING Other Than Huge-Civ Is Bad News

98 Our Level in the Great Filter

99 At Least Two Filters

100 Fertility: The Big Problem

Part 5: Our Future

Aliens

101 Humans Are Early

102 An Alien War Nightmare

103 Non-Grabby Legacies

104 Why We Can't See Grabby Aliens

105 Beware General Visible Near Prey

106 If The Future Is Big

UFOs

107 UFOs – What The Hell?

108 On UFOs-As-Aliens Priors

109 My Awkward Inference

110 UFO Stylized Social Facts

111 Explaining Stylized UFO Facts

The Age of Em

112 Why Age of Em Will Happen

113 How To Not Die (Soon)

114 How Does Brain Code Differ?

115 Progeny Probabilities: Souls, Ems, Quantum

116 Em Redistribution

Artificial Intelligence

117 A.I. Old-Timers

118 How Lumpy AI Services?

119 A History Of Foom

120 I Still Don't Get Foom

121 Foom Justifies AI Risk Efforts Now

122 Is The City-ularity Near?

123 The Betterness Explosion

124 An Outside View of AI Control

125 AI Risk, Again

 

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