Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年10月17日
China unveiled more stimulus actions for its property sector—investors weren’t pleased, again
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中国股市CSI 300指数在过去10天经历了艰难时期,自10月8日触及今年高点以来下跌了11%,跌入回调区域。周四该指数再次下跌1%。造成这一跌幅的原因是刺激政策不足,尽管北京宣布了针对房地产市场的两项新措施,包括为“白名单”房地产项目提供4万亿元人民币(5617亿美元)的贷款,以及对老城区进行百万套房屋翻新,但投资者认为这些措施还不够,尤其是此前9月底宣布的一系列刺激措施引发了股市反弹,而随后的刺激措施新闻发布会却让投资者失望,导致股市下跌。

🏘️ 中国股市CSI 300指数在过去10天经历了艰难时期,自10月8日触及今年高点以来下跌了11%,跌入回调区域。周四该指数再次下跌1%。造成这一跌幅的原因是刺激政策不足,尽管北京宣布了针对房地产市场的两项新措施,包括为“白名单”房地产项目提供4万亿元人民币(5617亿美元)的贷款,以及对老城区进行百万套房屋翻新,但投资者认为这些措施还不够,尤其是此前9月底宣布的一系列刺激措施引发了股市反弹,而随后的刺激措施新闻发布会却让投资者失望,导致股市下跌。

📈 “白名单”于今年1月公布,旨在确保未完工的住房项目能够完工并交付给买方。截至今年年底,中国将向“白名单”房地产项目提供4万亿元人民币(5617亿美元)的贷款,其中2.23万亿元人民币(3131亿美元)已获批。

🏘️ 中国还将对老城区进行百万套房屋翻新,并对居民进行相应的补偿。这些措施似乎不足以扭转房地产市场颓势,一些分析师认为,政府应该扩大5月份宣布的“最后买家”计划,允许政府成为房地产市场的最后买家。

📉 中国房地产行业在几年前占到中国经济的三分之一,但自2020年北京对开发商的高负债率进行整顿以来,该行业一直处于低迷状态。多年的整顿影响了房价,进而影响了消费者信心,因为中国约70%的家庭财富都存放在房地产中。如果预期房价继续下跌,潜在买家可能会推迟购房,进而影响依赖销售收入的开发商。麦格理估计,销售收入约占开发商总资金的45%。

📊 虽然许多分析师对政策感到失望,但也有人认为周四的公告采取了更“务实”的态度。仲量联行大中华区首席经济学家庞溟表示,北京预计房地产行业将“既不会成为经济增长的动力,也不会成为经济增长的阻力,而是成为未来经济的稳定器”。星展银行周四发布的研究报告也指出,政府将继续密切关注房地产市场,该行预计政府仍将在需要时加大支持力度,但更多的是“管理缩减,而不是扭转趋势”。

China’s CSI 300 stock index has faced a tough 10 days. The index, which tracks shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, has fallen 11% since hitting a high for the year on Oct. 8. That plunge, which puts the index in correction territory, continued Thursday with another 1% drop.The culprit? Stimulus—or the lack thereof. Thursday’s dip came after Beijing announced two new measures aimed at the property market. China said loans for its “white list” property projects will reach 4 trillion yuan ($561.7 billion) by the end of this year. A total of 2.23 trillion yuan ($313.1 billion) had already been approved to “white list” developers.The “white list”, announced in January, is a list of approved developers who are eligible to receive speedier lending to try to ensure that unfinished housing projects are completed so they can be delivered to buyers.China will also aim to renovate one million homes in run-down downtown districts and residents will be compensated accordingly.But those measures seem to be short of what investors were hoping for, especially after authorities announced a range of stimulus measures in late September that helped spark a rally before China went on a weeklong national day break. Subsequent press conferences on stimulus measures have underwhelmed investors and resulted in stock market declines.The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index closed down 6.7% Thursday and is down 23% from its year-high on Oct. 2.“Not enough”Macquarie’s global economists Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang wrote in a note on Thursday that the measures “may not be enough to turn the housing market around”. The note added that it would have been better if authorities expanded a program announced in May that would allow the government to act as the buyer of last resort in the housing market.China’s real estate sector was estimated to account for as much as a third of the country’s economy just a few years ago. But the sector has been in a slump since Beijing cracked down on developers’ high-level of debt in 2020. The years-long crackdown has affected home prices, which in turn has also affected consumer confidence as about 70% of the country’s household wealth is parked in real estate. Potential buyers may also hold off on purchases if they expect home prices to continue dropping, which in turn affects developers who are dependent on sales revenue. Macquarie estimates sales revenue makes up about 45% of total developer funding.But while many analysts were disappointed, some viewed Thursday’s announcement as taking a more “pragmatic stance”.Bruce Pang, the chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle said in comments to Bloomberg that Beijing is expecting the property sector to be “neither a driver or a drag of economic growth, but a stabilizer going forward.”A UOB research note published Thursday also noted that the government will continue to watch the property market closely, and that the bank expects the government will still step up support when needed, but more to “manage the downsizing rather than to reverse the trend.”

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房地产 刺激政策 股市 中国经济
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