Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年10月11日
Inside the Fed’s big rate cut decision, where officials were divided more than you’d think
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美联储九月会议决定降息半百分点,此举引发争议。多数投票成员通过,但并非一致同意。这是2005年来首次有理事投反对票。反对者认为此举可能被视为过早宣告胜利,部分人认为降四分之一百分点更合适,这样更渐进,能让决策者根据经济情况行动。此为疫情以来首次降息,鲍威尔称是政策立场的‘重新校准’。通胀虽放缓,但失业率仍高,未来降息不确定。

🧐美联储九月会议决定降息半百分点,12名投票成员中多数通过,但结果并非一致,这是2005年以来首次有理事投反对票。

😕反对的理事米歇尔·鲍曼认为应降四分之一百分点,她觉得更大幅度降息可能被视为过早宣告在价格稳定任务上取得胜利,一些参与者也持此观点。

🤔一些参与者指出降四分之一百分点是更渐进的方式,能让决策者观察经济发展并据此调整货币紧缩政策,还有人认为此举能表明政策正常化的更可预测路径。

📈美联储此为疫情以来首次降息,鲍威尔称是政策立场的‘重新校准’,旨在平衡保持价格稳定和实现充分就业的双重任务。

😮通胀虽持续放缓,但失业率仍高,未来是否再次大幅降息不确定,鲍威尔表示美联储的决定将根据每次会议情况做出。

The Fed’s decision to opt for a bigger rate cut wasn’t without its controversy, according to minutes from its September meeting. While the move to lower rates by half a percentage point was approved by a majority of the 12 voting members, the result was not unanimous. In fact, it was the first time that a governor dissented on an interest rate vote since 2005. The dissenting governor, Michelle Bowman, said she voted against the larger interest rate cut because she would have preferred a quarter-point decrease. She added in a speech to a bankers group in Kentucky that the bigger rate cut “could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate,” CNBC reported.Minutes from last month’s meeting revealed that Bowman was not alone in her thinking. “Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes read.Several other participants apparently noted that a reduction of a quarter of a percentage point would be the more gradual way to go, and would allow policymakers to see how the economy evolved and act accordingly with their monetary restrictiveness. “A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization,” the minutes read.The Fed’s decision marked the first time it had cut rates since March 2020 during the pandemic, when it also cut by half a percentage point. Before then, rates had not been cut since the 2008 financial crisis. In announcing last month’s rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave some credit to the Federal Open Market Committee’s approach.“Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends. Inflation is now much closer to our objective and we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” Powell said during a press conference last month.Powell framed the cut as a “recalibration” of its policy stance and said the Fed’s decision was aimed at equally taking into account its dual mandate to keep prices stable while shooting for full employment. Inflation has continued to slow, dropping last month to 2.4% year-over-year—its lowest point in three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The improved, although volatile, inflation rate could throw into doubt any hopes of another large rate cut coming before the end of the year, especially as the unemployment rate was still elevated at about 4.1% as of last month, despite a slight month-over-month improvement.As for future rate cuts, Powell signaled last month that the Fed is not on a preset course.“We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting,” Powell said. 

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美联储 利率下调 政策立场 经济影响 通货膨胀
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