Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年10月10日
CFOs are worried about geopolitics—but fear is higher in Europe than in the U.S. and Asia
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现代CFO面临风险增多且难以预测的世界,如俄乌冲突、中东战乱、台海问题等引发的地缘政治风险,以及网络犯罪、经济放缓、保护主义等。欧洲CFO对地缘政治风险感知更敏锐,不同地区CFO的关注点有所不同。报告建议企业通过多样化运营和场景规划来降低风险。

🌐地缘政治风险普遍存在,欧洲CFO比亚洲和美国的同行更敏锐地察觉到这一危险。在被调查的13个欧洲国家中,多数将其列为组织面临的三大风险之一。

💻网络犯罪被视为严重的地缘政治风险,70%的欧洲CFO认为其威胁“严重”,80%的受访者认为此类攻击“可能发生”。

🔥乌克兰战争影响显著,葡萄牙等国的CFO将其视为主要或次要的威胁,他们担心冲突恶化带来的政治和经济影响。

🚩欧元区内部的政治情况让CFO们不安,特别是极右翼政党在欧洲议会选举中取得较大进展,可能导致政府出台贸易和移民限制政策,影响企业运营和增加成本。

🛡️美国的保护主义趋势让欧洲CFO们担忧,德国的CFO将美国的政治不稳定视为首要威胁,认为高关税趋势可能持续。

Good morning. Greg McKenna back again until Sheryl returns from Fortune Impact tomorrow. The modern CFO must contend with a world that has become riskier and more unpredictable. This includes Russia’s brutal and ongoing invasion of Ukraine, conflict spreading in the Middle East, and China menacing Taiwan—all while a general rise in populist and nationalist sentiment pose massive risks to global business.Geopolitical risk is everywhere but not everyone is equally concerned. European finance chiefs sense this danger more acutely than their peers in Asia and the United States, according to Deloitte’s annual European CFO survey.Out of more than 1,300 respondents, only 2% said they didn’t expect their businesses to be impacted by geopolitics. In eight of the 13 countries surveyed—Austria, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom—they ranked it as one of the three biggest risks their organizations face.In contrast, another survey from the firm found about 60% of American CFOs viewed the economy as their top external risk, followed by geopolitics and cybersecurity. Deloitte’s Asia-Pacific edition of the survey last year found 80% of the region’s CFOs worried most about a global economic slowdown.It’s worth noting that this survey classified cybercrime as a geopolitical risk, and it ended up top of the heap of concerns. Seventy percent of European CFOs classified the threat as “severe,” more than any other category, with 80% of those polled saying they view such attacks as “likely.”The war in Ukraine, unsurprisingly, also looms large. Finance chiefs in Portugal cited the conflict as their primary concern, and CFOs in Italy, Norway, Ireland, and Iceland ranked it as their second biggest threat.“None of these countries borders Russia, proving that CFOs fear the broadening of the political and economic repercussions of a worsening conflict rather than the immediate threat of invasion or escalation,” wrote Richard Horton and Ram Krishna Sahu from Deloitte’s EMEA research team, along with Rolf Epstein, who leads the firm’s CFO program and private segment consulting practice in Germany.Politics in the eurozone itself, meanwhile, have CFOs on edge, particularly after far-right parties made big gains in the recent European parliamentary elections. The rise of populist politics can impact business even when these parties do not win office, the report noted. To fend off populist opponents, governments may introduce restrictions on trade and immigration that can disrupt operations and increase costs.“Companies should focus on diversifying operations and engage in robust scenario planning to mitigate these risks,” the report said. Many harbor similar fears when they look across the Atlantic as election day in the U.S. approaches. Political instability in America has become the top concern for finance chiefs in Germany, Europe’s largest economy and the world’s third-biggest exporter, replacing the war in Ukraine as their primary perceived threat.“The U.S. has become more protectionist during the past two presidencies,” the report noted, “and the trend toward higher tariffs may persist.”European CFOs are particularly attuned to the threat of increased protectionism in global trade. It’s another risk, however, that finance chiefs must reckon with everywhere.  Greg McKennagreg.mckenna@fortune.comLeaderboardNadine Ahn was named deputy CFO at Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (TSX: CF) and will transition into the CFO role in 2025. Ahn, formerly CFO at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), and a longtime executive at the bank, was terminated from her position in April for allegedly having an undisclosed close personal relationship with a subordinate, RBC claims. At Canaccord, Ahn will succeed current CFO, Don MacFayden, who is stepping down. “Nadine brings a wealth of multijurisdictional financial leadership experience, making her exceptionally well-suited to support our continued long-term growth and delivery of significant shareholder value,” Dan Daviau, CEO of Canaccord, said in a statement. Cameron Pforr was named CFO of M-tron Industries, Inc. (NYSE American: MPTI), a designer and manufacturer of highly engineered electronic components, effective Oct. 3. As CFO, Pforr will be responsible for the company's growth strategy and management of the finance and investor relations functions. He brings years of experience in finance and corporate development and has executed over 30 M&A acquisitions and corporate sales.Big DealThe World Economic Forum has a new report titled Digital Assets Regulation: Insights from Jurisdictional Approaches, which explores how regulations are taking shape in nine jurisdictions: the EU, Gibraltar, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, the UAE, the U.K. and the U.S. This report, which builds on prior research, provides insight into their unique approaches to policy creation and implementation.Going deeperYou may have a new workplace companion, thanks to generative AI.  “Can an AI Chatbot Be Your Friend?” is an article in Wharton’s business review that highlights a study coauthored by Wharton marketing professor Stefano Puntoni. When people interact with chatbots programmed to respond with empathy, their feelings of loneliness are significantly abated—at least for a short time, according to the findings. Overheard“We are way more than just meeting conferencing.”— Zoom CEO Eric Yuan told Fortune’s Sharon Goldman in an interview in advance of the company’s Zoomtopia conference, which unveiled new AI work and business features. These include upgrades to its “AI Companion,” that allow users to generate content and search across Zoom’s workplace platform.

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地缘政治风险 网络犯罪 乌克兰战争 政治不稳定 保护主义
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