文章围绕用信息图预测诺贝尔物理学奖得主展开。提到选择诺奖得主的过程高度保密，还介绍了一张展示诺贝尔物理学奖历史的信息图，它揭示了各物理学领域受关注情况及变化。去年部分预测正确，增强了对信息图预测能力的信心，今年预测凝聚态物理学有望获奖，并提到了一些可能的研究方向。

🎯文章介绍了一张展示诺贝尔物理学奖历史的信息图，按获奖工作的学科进行分类，如去年皮埃尔·阿戈斯蒂尼、费伦茨·克劳斯和安妮·吕利耶因使用阿秒激光脉冲研究电子行为的开创性工作，该奖项被归类为“原子、分子和光学”。

💡信息图不仅揭示了各物理学领域受诺奖委员会关注的程度，还表明一些学科的受关注情况有起伏，而有些学科在过去120年中获奖者较为稳定，如量子物理学曾受欢迎后失宠，2012年又回归。

🔮去年部分预测正确，使作者对信息图的预测能力有了信心，今年根据信息图预测凝聚态物理学有望获奖，提到了魔法角石墨烯和超材料等可能的研究方向。

Part of the fun of the run-up to the announcement of the Nobel Prize for Physics is the speculation – serious, silly or otherwise – of who will be this year’s winner(s). Here at Physics World, we don’t shy away from making predictions but our track record is not particularly good.

That’s not surprising, because the process of choosing Nobel winners is highly secretive and we know nothing about who has been nominated for this year’s prize. That’s thanks to the 50 year embargo on all information related to the decision.

The 2024 prize will be announced tomorrow and if you would like to know more about how the Nobel Committee for Physics operates, check out this article that’s based on an interview with a former committee chair: “Inside the Nobels: Lars Brink reveals how the world’s top physics prize is awarded”.

Charting history

Several years ago we created an infographic that charts the history of the Nobel Prize for Physics in terms of the discipline of the winning work (see figure). For example, last year the prize was shared by Pierre Agostini, Ferenc Krausz and Anne L’Huillier for their pioneering work using attosecond laser pulses to study the behaviour of electrons. We categorized this prize as “atomic, molecular and optical” and you can see that prize at the top of the infographic, connected to its category by a darkish blue line.

As well as revealing which disciplines of physics have received the most attention from successive Nobel committees, the infographic also shows that some disciplines fall in and out of favour, while others have produced a steady stream of winners over the past 12 decades. The infographic shows, for example, the return of quantum physics to the Nobel realm. The discipline was popular with the Nobel committee in the 1910–50s and then fell completely out of favour until 2012.

Another thing that is apparent from the infographic is that after about 1990 there tends to be well-defined gaps between disciplines. And for no good scientific reason, we have decided that we can analyse these gaps and use the results to make predictions!

Partially correct

Last year, we noticed that atomic, molecular and optical physics was due a prize. That observation, it part, led us to predict that Paul Corkum, Ferenc Krausz and Anne L’Huillier would win in 2023. This partially correct prediction has emboldened our faith in the mystical ability of our infographic to help predict winners.

So what does that mean for our predictions for this year?

The infographic makes it clear that we are overdue a prize in condensed matter physics. Some possibilities that we have identified include magic-angle graphene and metamaterials.

So tune into Physics World tomorrow and find out if we are right.

 

 

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